Comex Gold Deliveries Approach Historic Levels Post-Election
Since the U.S. election, the CME Comex has observed an unprecedented surge in gold delivery volumes, indicating a significant shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics. Approximately 24 million troy ounces (746 tons) of gold have been transferred into Comex vaults since the November 5th election. This influx has propelled total gold stockpiles within Comex storage to 39.15 million ounces, nearing a 35-year high and surpassing even the peak observed during the pandemic-induced volatility of May 2020. This substantial movement was partly driven by an arbitrage opportunity between spot and futures prices, which encouraged active exploitation by traders.
April stood out with 64,514 contracts delivered, marking the second-highest on record and representing an estimated $21.3 billion in physical gold transfers. Concurrently, geopolitical risks are increasingly influencing gold prices. The Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index has been on an upward trajectory as the U.S. election approached, with policy rhetoric surrounding tariffs, particularly against China, raising concerns about global economic growth. Historical data suggests every 100-point increase in the GPR Index tends to elevate gold prices by 2.5%.
In the exchange-traded fund (ETF) sector, gold ETFs began experiencing net inflows in late February 2025. With 88.9 million ounces under management, these holdings are gradually recovering to September 2023 levels, when gold traded below $2,000 per ounce. Despite these inflows, current ETF holdings remain 22 million ounces short of their Q3 2020 peak.
Silver Delivery Volume Experiences Strong Ascent in September
September has emerged as a significant month for silver, with delivery volumes remaining robust and reportedly approaching a new all-time high. The silver contract has demonstrated a notable price increase as its delivery period draws near, reflecting heightened investor interest in physical settlement. The CME Comex, the primary exchange for trading gold, silver, and other commodity futures, facilitates the conversion of contracts into physical metal through delivery.
While specific numerical data for September silver delivery volume was not explicitly detailed as an all-time high, the general trend indicates sustained strength. For context, the August silver contract recorded 1,721,192 ounces delivered in its first five days. During the same period, 1,890,316 ounces were withdrawn from warehouses, indicating a net outflow of metal from the system. On September 30, 2025, Silver Futures traded at $46.370 per troy ounce (APZ), advancing 0.99% in a 24-hour period, with a volume of 49.57 K and open interest at 136.92 K.
Parallel to international markets, on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), December silver futures on September 30, 2025, advanced ₹1,081 or 0.76% to a record ₹1,44,180 per kilogram. The March 2026 silver contract also increased by ₹1,069 or 0.74% to ₹1,45,800 per kilogram, coinciding with gold's rally to new records.
Market Reassessment: Divergence Between Physical and Paper Assets
The current environment marks a fundamental shift from historical norms, where physical delivery in the Comex futures market typically accounted for less than 1% of contracts. Recent months have seen delivery rates in certain contract periods reach 100%, exemplified by the August 2023 gold contract, where 20,160 contracts (representing 100% of contracts, or approximately 2,016,000 ounces valued at $7 billion) stood for delivery within the first three days.
This trend is further underscored by a historic reversal in U.S. gold flows. Since November 2022, the U.S. has transitioned from a net exporter to an importer, with over $100 billion worth of gold brought into the country, marking the most substantial inflows since the post-World War II Bretton Woods monetary system era. This suggests a reevaluation of strategic reserves and global monetary flows among major financial players.
The mechanism of price discovery is being rigorously tested by these elevated delivery demands. When a significant percentage of contracts demand physical settlement, it pressures the available supply. If the physical metal is insufficient, prices are theoretically compelled to rise to attract new supply, deter further delivery requests, and balance demand with inventory. This situation highlights potential stress within a system where paper trading volumes often significantly exceed available physical inventory, akin to a fractional reserve system for precious metals.
Adding to this dynamic, metal exiting Comex vaults often represents a permanent removal from the trading ecosystem, as it requires costly and time-consuming re-assaying before re-entry. This "one-way flow" creates a continuous drain on the available inventory supporting the paper trading market. The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) reportedly holds silver reserves of approximately 155 million ounces, a 140-year low, yet official daily trading volume stands at 190 million ounces, potentially reaching 1.9 billion ounces including over-the-counter trades, underscoring a significant disconnect between physical reality and paper claims.
Broader Context and Investment Implications
Gold's performance in 2025 positions it for its strongest annual showing since 1979, with bullion repeatedly achieving record highs. This robust performance is attributed to a confluence of factors, including elevated interest rates, persistent inflationary pressures, and an increase in geopolitical crises. Gold continues to serve its traditional role as a safe haven and store of value, particularly amidst concerns of economic slowdowns and rising geopolitical tensions, such as those between Russia and NATO.
The broader trend of de-dollarization also contributes to gold's appeal. Increased U.S. tariffs this year, reaching levels not seen since the 1930s, have fostered market angst and supported a shift away from dollar dependence. The U.S. dollar has depreciated by more than 9% in 2025, which mechanistically enhances the value of gold when priced in dollars. Central banks, notably China, have actively increased their gold reserves, aiming to bolster their standing in the global bullion market and reduce reliance on the dollar.
Analysts are assessing gold's trajectory. Bank of America (BofA) suggests gold is tactically "overbought" but structurally "under owned," representing only 0.4% of private client assets under management, and maintains a long position. Arnab Das, Global Macro Strategist at Invesco, posits the gold rally "still has legs" due to a lack of viable alternatives as a hedge against U.S. risks. Deutsche Bank has adjusted its 2026 gold price forecast upward by $300, projecting $4,000 per ounce. Gold's inherent scarcity, with total supplies increasing by an estimated 1.7% annually, further enhances its attractiveness when public finance concerns arise.
Looking Ahead: Sustained Demand and Market Re-evaluation
The sustained high delivery volumes for both gold and silver suggest a persistent and growing demand for physical precious metals. This trend is likely to continue being influenced by ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, evolving geopolitical landscapes, and a fundamental re-evaluation by investors regarding the stability of fiat currencies versus tangible assets. The evident shift from paper claims to physical holdings on the Comex underscores a broader market recalibration.
Market participants will closely monitor future Comex delivery data for indications of continued physical market strength and further drawdowns from vaults. The widening disparity between vast paper trading volumes and diminishing physical inventory, particularly within the silver market, presents a critical area of focus. Any further expansion of this imbalance could lead to increased price volatility as market mechanisms endeavor to align physical reality with the expectations set by paper trading. Key factors such as geopolitical developments, central bank monetary policies, and global economic performance will remain pivotal in shaping investor sentiment and the trajectory of precious metals markets.
Edgen Stock·Sep 30 2025, 16:39
