Stock Jumps 17% Despite Weak 2026 Outlook
Shares of Venture Global surged 17% to $11.38, marking their largest single-day percentage gain since June 2025, even as the company issued a weak financial forecast. The liquefied natural gas supplier reported fourth-quarter earnings of 41 cents per share on revenue of $4.45 billion, narrowly beating Wall Street's expectations. This performance was driven by a significant ramp-up in operations, with the company exporting 128 LNG cargoes compared to just 33 in the prior-year period.
However, the company's forward-looking statements painted a weaker picture. Management guided for full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA between $5.2 billion and $5.8 billion, below the consensus estimate of $5.93 billion. The outlook for the first quarter was even softer, with a projected adjusted EBITDA of $1.15 billion to $1.25 billion, substantially missing analysts' calls for $1.86 billion, citing winter storms and margin compression.
European LNG Prices Spike 41% on Qatar Supply Halt
The market chose to ignore the soft guidance, focusing instead on a major disruption to global LNG supply. Prices for the benchmark Dutch TTF contract soared nearly 41% to 45.02 euros after Qatar, one of the world's top three LNG exporters, announced it had halted production. The stoppage came after Iranian drone strikes on its facilities, effectively halting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global LNG supply.
Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted that a sustained disruption could have severe consequences for energy markets. They projected that a one-month halt in Qatari LNG flows could push the TTF price toward 74 euros per megawatt-hour, a level that previously triggered significant demand destruction during the 2022 European energy crisis. Mizuho analysts added that Venture Global is better-positioned than its peers to capture the immediate upside from the widening gas pricing spreads.
Edgen Stock·Mar 03 2026, 03:02
