Chinese households added 7.58 trillion yuan to bank deposits in the first half, the biggest six-month build-up on record, as deflationary expectations kept consumers from spending.
Geri
China household deposits jump 7.58 trillion yuan in H1 as spending lags
Chinese households added 7.58 trillion yuan to bank deposits in the first half, the biggest six-month build-up on record, as deflationary expectations kept consumers from spending.
Chinese households added 7.58 trillion yuan ($1.04 trillion) in bank deposits during the first half, the People's Bank of China said, showing persistent deflationary pressure as consumers hoard cash rather than spend.
The deposit build-up, equivalent to roughly 6 percent of China's annual gross domestic product, highlights the challenge facing policymakers trying to revive domestic demand. The PBoC has cut benchmark lending rates repeatedly over the past two years, yet households continue to favor savings over consumption — a pattern that mirrors Japan's experience during its lost decade.
Total RMB deposits reached 346.44 trillion yuan at the end of June, up 8.2 percent from a year earlier. Non-financial corporate deposits rose 3.2 trillion yuan in the first half, while fiscal deposits increased by 971.5 billion yuan. Non-banking financial institutions added 4.65 trillion yuan, suggesting liquidity is flowing into the financial system even as the real economy struggles to absorb it.
Foreign currency deposits stood at $1.16 trillion, up 13.7 percent year-on-year, with an increase of $98 billion in the first half. The rapid growth in dollar-denominated deposits points to continued capital outflow pressure and export-driven dollar accumulation by Chinese companies.
The data raises questions about the effectiveness of the PBoC's monetary easing cycle. With households and companies both preferring to hold cash, the transmission mechanism from lower policy rates to higher spending and investment appears broken. The PBoC's next policy decision — the 1-year medium-term lending facility rate is due for review this month — will be watched for signs of further easing, though today's data suggests additional rate cuts may do little to unlock the savings glut without complementary fiscal stimulus.
Foreign Currency Hoarding Adds to Pressure on the Yuan
The $98 billion increase in foreign currency deposits in six months suggests Chinese companies and individuals are converting yuan into dollars, either to hedge against further depreciation or to hold export proceeds offshore. The onshore yuan (CNY) has faced persistent depreciation pressure against the dollar as the PBoC has eased monetary policy while the Federal Reserve has kept rates elevated. China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.2 trillion at the end of June, providing a buffer, but the steady accumulation of dollar deposits outside the central bank's control limits the PBoC's ability to manage the currency.
The deposit surge comes as China's consumer price index has hovered near zero for much of the past year, with core inflation excluding food and energy running well below the PBoC's 3 percent target. The property market downturn, which has erased trillions of yuan in household wealth, has compounded the deflationary dynamic by destroying the primary channel through which Chinese families traditionally deployed savings.
The 4.65 trillion yuan increase in non-banking financial institution deposits is notable. It suggests that while households and companies are parking cash in banks, those banks are in turn channeling liquidity to financial institutions — a pattern that supports bond markets and interbank lending but does little to boost real economic activity. China's 10-year government bond yield has fallen to multi-year lows as a result.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
