Michigan primary tests progressive surge as El-Sayed leads by 15 points

Abdul El-Sayed enters Tuesday's Michigan Democratic Senate primary with a 15-point lead over Rep. Haley Stevens, a late surge that has turned the contest into a national referendum on the party's progressive direction. The winner faces Republican Mike Rogers in November in a race rated a tossup by nonpartisan analysts, with Senate control potentially in the balance.

"This election is ultimately a test of whether unlimited outside spending can substitute for genuine grassroots organizing," said Joseph Geevarghese, executive director of Our Revolution, the group that grew out of Sanders' 2016 presidential campaign. "Regardless of where the money comes from, voters are demonstrating that there are limits to what money alone can buy."

The Public Sentiment Institute's final survey gives El-Sayed 54.8 percent to Stevens' 45.2 percent among projected likely voters, with a 96 percent probability of an El-Sayed win. The margin narrows to 47.6 percent to 39.5 percent when modeled around the most likely primary electorate, reflecting Stevens' strength among voters 65 and older, who make up 48.9 percent of projected turnout. Emerson College Polling found El-Sayed ahead 57 percent to 41 percent including leaners, with voters under 50 breaking for him by 42 points.

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to flip the Senate, and Michigan is one of the clearest Republican pickup opportunities. Trump carried the state by 1.4 points in 2024, and Rogers lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin by less than a percentage point the same year. Republicans have not won a Michigan Senate seat since 2001.

The spending gap is the widest of any Senate primary this cycle. AdImpact data shows Stevens and her allies have spent $61 million this year through Saturday, versus $6.5 million for El-Sayed and his backers — making it the third-most-expensive Senate primary on record. The United Democracy Project, AIPAC's affiliated super PAC, accounts for $30 million of that total, the organization's largest investment in a single race. Mother Jones, citing federal records, reported groups benefiting Stevens had accounted for more than $60 million in outside spending.

AIPAC Spending Becomes a Liability

TPSI's issue polling shows the outside money may be backfiring. Among likely voters, 41 percent said accepting campaign contributions from a PAC supporting Israel would make them much less likely to support a candidate, with another 14.8 percent saying somewhat less likely. More than a third said such contributions made no difference.

Michigan has the highest percentage of Arab American residents of any state, while its Jewish population is less than half the size of its Arab American population, said Jim Kessler, Third Way's executive vice president for policy. "Israel will continue to be a dividing line in Democratic politics," he said. "That will be the case no matter who wins next Tuesday."

El-Sayed has called Israel's actions in Gaza "genocide" and supports Medicare for All, free child care, and abolishing ICE. Stevens backs a government-run health plan competing with private options, removing Social Security's payroll tax cap, and national paid family leave. Whitmer's endorsement last week revived memories of her 22-point gubernatorial primary victory over El-Sayed in 2018, when she beat him decisively in the same state.

The November Test

Head-to-head polling shows either Democrat within striking distance of Rogers. A late-June Quantus Insights survey gave Stevens a 1.4-point edge and El-Sayed a 1.1-point edge, both within the margin of error. But a Glengariff Group poll commissioned by the Michigan Education Association found Rogers leading El-Sayed 49.0 percent to 38.7 percent, while Stevens essentially tied Rogers at 45.5 percent to 44.7 percent.

Prediction markets have moved sharply toward El-Sayed. Polymarket prices his nomination chances at 97 percent, while Kalshi shows 97 percent as well. The last time a DSA-aligned candidate won a statewide primary in a battleground state, the party establishment's argument that progressives cannot win swing states was called into question — and the 2028 presidential cycle is already being shaped by that debate.

Whoever wins Tuesday faces the harder task of unifying a party that has spent months attacking itself. "There are a lot of very strong, intense feelings right now, and we have to bring people together," said Rep. Debbie Dingell, one of the few Michigan Democrats who has not taken sides. "Nobody can like the kind of brutality, the ugliness that we have seen. That makes it harder to come together. But we have no choice."

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