Solana's 10% breakout above $80 on Aug 19 hinges on whether SOL/BTC strength can carry the move toward $100.
Geri
Solana breaks $80 after 10% rally as ETF inflows hit $1.16B
Solana's 10% breakout above $80 on Aug 19 hinges on whether SOL/BTC strength can carry the move toward $100.
Solana rose 10% to break above $80 on Aug 19, clearing a supply zone that reopens a path toward $100 by the end of Q3.
Nearly $40 million in SOL shorts were liquidated in the last hour as SOL pushed back above $80, with the largest single short liquidation of $1 million around $82, according to SolanaFloor. Longs are piling back in, with Arkham spotting a $40 million leveraged long opened by one trader.
Solana ETFs ended the week with over $10 million in net inflows, the strongest weekly inflow since the May cycle, per SoSoValue. Cumulative ETF inflows since launch reached $1.16 billion, with combined net assets of $923.57 million across all offerings.
The $100 target depends on SOL/BTC momentum. SOL/BTC is trending higher but remains below the 0.0013 resistance from early July. Without stronger relative strength against Bitcoin, the rally could turn into another Bitcoin-led cycle, leaving leveraged longs exposed to a bull trap.
ETF flows and tokenization back the bullish case
Solana's tokenization and ETF momentum continues to pick up. Just seven weeks in, Backpack and Sunrise's tokenized stocks on Solana are already outperforming U.S. exchanges. During regular hours, Solana trades roughly in line with TradFi, but pre-market, post-market, and overnight the edge flips, highlighting Solana's potential as an alternative to traditional market infrastructure, per Blockworks Research.
SOL peaked at $86 on Wednesday before retreating to approximately $84.81 as of 12:55 UTC on Aug 20. The immediate resistance sits at the 200-day EMA of $88.82, near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $90.21. A break above $88.82 clears the path toward the $98.41 swing high and the psychologically significant $100 level. Support is established at the 50% retracement of $79.27 and the 100-day EMA at $78.41. The relative strength index registers near 72, entering overbought conditions.
Crypto analyst Ali Charts identifies $100 as the primary level to monitor, with a definitive break above strengthening conviction that the market has established its bottom. He has outlined extended price targets of $295 and $400. Trader Michaël van de Poppe expects SOL to make a substantial upward move.
The risk is that the 10% move is largely driven by short-term capital rotation rather than durable demand. With SOL/BTC still below the 0.0013 resistance from early July, some analysts argue the rally needs more relative strength against Bitcoin to hold. If leverage unwinds or Bitcoin momentum stalls, the growing leveraged longs could become a risky trade, potentially delaying the $100 target into Q4.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
