SpaceX falls 48% from peak ahead of first earnings report

SpaceX shares have fallen 48% from their post-IPO peak, closing at $113 on July 24 ahead of the company's first earnings report as a public company on Aug. 4.

"The stock already reflects the good outcome," HSBC analyst [name] said in initiating coverage with a hold rating and $115 price target, according to CNBC. The bank valued SpaceX by pricing each business separately and applying a 2x "innovation premium" for Elon Musk's track record, yet still landed below the current market price.

The consensus estimate calls for second-quarter revenue of $6.9 billion, up 47% from the first quarter, and a loss of $0.28 per share. SpaceX generated $4.69 billion in revenue in Q1 but lost $1.94 billion from operations, filings show. Starlink contributed $3.26 billion of that revenue with $1.19 billion in operating income, while the AI segment produced $818 million in revenue and a $2.47 billion operating loss. Capital spending reached $10.1 billion in the quarter, with $7.7 billion directed at AI.

The Aug. 4 report is the first clean look at SpaceX's cash burn since its June IPO. Two trading days later, on Aug. 6, the first lockup tranche expires, releasing up to 911.5 million shares and more than doubling the public float to about 12%, according to CNBC. Short sellers have collected roughly $15.5 billion in paper gains since the IPO, with short interest near 31% of the tradable float, Investing.com data shows.

HSBC expects SpaceX to post GAAP losses through 2027 and generate positive free cash flow only by 2030. The bank forecasts revenue will more than double to $38.2 billion in 2026 from $18.7 billion in 2025, driven by Starlink and AI. But it questioned whether orbital data centers can become economically viable within the decade and said Starlink's addressable market is likely smaller than SpaceX's own estimate of $28.5 trillion.

Starlink added subscribers at a rapid clip, reaching 10.3 million by the end of Q1 from 5.0 million a year earlier, SpaceNews reported. Average revenue per user fell to $66 a month from $86 over the same period as SpaceX pushed into lower-priced markets in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.

The 48% decline from the $225.64 intraday high on June 16 puts SpaceX stock below its $135 IPO price. A strong quarter could spark a rebound, but the Aug. 6 lockup expiry adds supply risk. Investors will watch the Aug. 4 report for signs that Starlink's subscriber growth can outrun its falling ARPU and whether AI losses are narrowing.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.