Bitcoin climbs above $66,000 as gold and crypto lead risk-asset rebound

Bitcoin and gold are producing the clearest bullish signals across global markets as institutional capital returns to crypto ETFs.

Bitcoin rose 1.2% to $66,100, a one-month high, as returning ETF inflows and a pullback in crude oil lifted risk appetite across crypto markets.

"Current bitcoin and ether prices are low but fair, given the macro uncertainties pervading markets," Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at BTSE, said. "Traders expect rates to hold steady but are looking for more signals as to what's to come later in the year."

US spot bitcoin ETFs drew $227 million on Monday, extending a five-day inflow streak to more than $600 million — the most sustained institutional buying since mid-July, according to SoSoValue data. Ethereum ETFs added $38 million, while XRP products saw $2.5 million in inflows. The buying coincided with a 1% drop in Brent crude to about $88.58 after Iran signaled openness to a 10-day pause in hostilities, easing the geopolitical premium that had weighed on risk assets.

The Federal Reserve's July 28-29 meeting now represents the next major test. Markets price roughly a 15% chance of a rate increase this month, though a September move remains live. A hawkish hold could cap the rally, while any dovish signal would open the path toward the 100-day EMA at $68,109 and, eventually, the 200-day EMA near $73,933.

$600 million in ETF inflows signal institutional shift

The five-day inflow streak marks a decisive reversal from the eight-week outflow run that extended through late June. Cumulative bitcoin ETF inflows now stand at nearly $52 billion, with net assets under management averaging $79 billion, SoSoValue data show. The recovery in institutional demand mirrors the broader risk-on rotation: Asian semiconductor shares rebounded sharply Tuesday, with South Korea's Kospi and Taiwan's Taiex each climbing about 4%, reversing the selloff triggered by Chinese AI competition fears last week.

Bitcoin's technical setup reflects the improving but incomplete recovery. The Relative Strength Index at 60 on the daily chart suggests momentum is constructive, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence holds in positive territory with a supportive histogram. However, the 100-day EMA at $68,109 and the 200-day EMA at $73,933 remain overhead, keeping the broader bias neutral to slightly bearish despite the rebound.

Gold joins the breakout narrative

Gold futures rose 1.1% to $4,060, tracking the same macro tailwinds that are lifting bitcoin. The VIX fell 6% to 17.82, its lowest level in weeks, as volatility expectations eased alongside the pullback in oil prices. The simultaneous rally in both gold and bitcoin — two assets that historically draw flows during periods of macro uncertainty — reinforces a narrative that investors are hedging against both geopolitical risk and potential Fed policy missteps.

For bitcoin, the immediate resistance at $68,109 (100-day EMA) is the line in the sand. A daily close above that level would open the path toward the 200-day EMA at $73,933, while a failure to hold above the 50-day EMA at $65,087 could expose a retest of lower support near $60,000.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.