Bitcoin flashes macro bottom signal above $66,000 on monthly chart trifecta

Bitcoin crossed above $66,000 on July 21, triggering a monthly chart pattern that preceded a 675% rally in prior cycles.

Bitcoin rose above $66,000 to its highest level in more than a month, as a technical trifecta on the monthly chart flashed a signal that has marked every major cycle bottom since 2015.

"This three-signal convergence on the monthly timeframe has preceded every significant bear-market floor in Bitcoin's history," Katie Stockton, managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, said.

BTC traded at $66,240 as of 14:00 UTC on July 21, up 3.2% in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. Trading volume reached $32.9 billion, roughly 40% above the seven-day average. Open interest rose 2.2% over the past day, while funding rates remained compressed near neutral territory, Coinglass data shows.

The signal arrives as Bitcoin trades roughly 47% below its all-time high of $126,173 set in October 2025, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index still in Extreme Fear territory near 15. A sustained move above $68,000 to $70,000 resistance would confirm the pattern's validity, while a daily close below $60,000 would invalidate the near-term recovery thesis.

The technical setup consists of three converging indicators on Bitcoin's monthly chart: a bullish divergence on the relative strength index, a monthly MACD histogram turning positive, and price reclaiming the 21-month exponential moving average. Each prior instance of this trifecta — in 2015, 2019, and 2022 — preceded rallies of 675% or more over the subsequent 12 to 18 months.

The pattern emerges against a backdrop of mixed institutional flows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. saw net outflows in late January and early February, with the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day — a so-called death cross — still visible on daily charts. Corporate treasury buying has provided a counterweight. Strategy, the largest corporate holder, disclosed a $2.46 billion Bitcoin purchase in August 2025, and the number of public companies holding Bitcoin reached 194 by the fourth quarter of 2025, according to data cited by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor.

Macro conditions remain a wildcard. The Federal Reserve's cautious messaging on rate cuts has kept risk assets under pressure, while escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities added a geopolitical risk premium to safe-haven assets. Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq 100 hit a two-year high of 0.77 in early 2025, linking its trajectory to equity market sentiment.

The immediate resistance cluster sits between $68,000 and $70,000, a zone where sellers have rejected price on multiple occasions since the post-ATH slide. Support is established in the $60,000 to $61,000 range, where BTC rebounded sharply after briefly breaking below $60,000 during the prior liquidation cascade. A daily close below that level would target deeper support zones and invalidate the near-term recovery thesis.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.