Bitcoin repeats historic bull-run signal after reclaiming $66,000

Bitcoin has flashed the same three-signal technical cluster that preceded its three largest bull runs since 2015.

Bitcoin rose 3% to $66,286 on July 21, reclaiming the $66,000 level after a technical pattern that preceded major rallies in 2015, 2019 and 2022.

The setup mirrors a trifecta that appeared at $235 in March 2015, at $3,333 in January 2019 and at $16,270 in December 2022, according to on-chain data from Glassnode and CryptoQuant. Each instance was followed by a rally of 675% or more.

The three signals — a monthly RSI below 43.65, a Chande Momentum Oscillator reading of -71, and a test of the 50-month moving average — have now all triggered again. The prior occurrences preceded an 8,300% expansion from 2015, a 1,911% rally from 2019 and a 675% surge from 2022.

The immediate level to watch is $66,700, the Structural Midline from on-chain market bands, according to CryptoQuant. A confirmed hold above that level could open a path toward $70,000-$72,000, while a rejection would send BTC back to retest support near $64,000-$65,000.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $75.7 million in net inflows last week, their second consecutive positive week, CoinGlass data shows. The two-week recovery of $273.1 million covers just 3.3% of the $8.2 billion that exited over the prior eight weeks, with June setting an all-time monthly outflow record of $4.5 billion.

The CLARITY Act, a digital asset market structure bill advancing in the Senate, is adding a separate layer of optimism to the narrative, though the legislative timeline remains subject to procedural risk.

Bitcoin's RSI sits at 66.93, indicating strong bullish momentum without reaching overbought territory, according to TradingView data. The MACD line is above the signal line with both above zero, confirming the short-term uptrend. The 50-day simple and exponential moving averages are converging in the $66,000-$67,000 zone, a band analysts say needs to be convincingly reclaimed for a credible advance.

On-chain metrics including MVRV and CVDD suggest a potential cycle bottom between $40,000 and $50,000, meaning a sweep of lower levels before continuation remains possible, according to Glassnode. The dominant signal, however, points to accumulation, with risk-to-reward at current levels favoring spot buyers over short sellers.

The thin liquidity backdrop raises the risk of sharp reversals. The 20-day EMA at $63,000 serves as the first support level on a pullback, with $60,000 and the 200-week moving average near $59,000 acting as structural floors. A close below $65,000 would reopen the prior range, with $61,500 and $60,000 as the next meaningful supports.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.