Bitcoin swings near $79K as US bond yields approach 20-year high

Bitcoin swung sharply on Aug. 31 as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent addressed bond yields near a 20-year high, pressuring risk assets at the monthly close.

The move follows a 24 percent August rally that lifted Bitcoin from $64,000 to briefly touch $80,000, with CryptoQuant's Bull Score jumping from 30 to 80. "This is a genuine regime shift, the initial phase of a new bull market," CryptoQuant said in its Aug. 25 report.

US Treasury yields approaching a 20-year high raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Bitcoin was trading near $79,000 on Aug. 27, holding most of its gains despite signs that large holders had started taking profits. The 365-day moving average stands near $83,000, around 5 percent above recent closing prices.

A decisive break above $83,000 would confirm a new bull market, according to CryptoQuant. Until then, rising bond yields could keep Bitcoin range-bound, with the monthly close setting the tone for September.

Bond Yields Pressure Risk Assets Into Monthly Close

The yield backdrop has shifted materially since August began. Bitcoin closed at $63,549 on Aug. 11, essentially flat month over month, with 30-day realized volatility easing to 27.2 percent annualized, well below the long-run average near 80 percent, according to VanEck's mid-August ChainCheck report.

VanEck's capitulation dashboard showed 8 of 12 tracked signals firing as of Aug. 12, which the firm characterized as evidence that Bitcoin was approaching, or may already be in, an accumulation phase. However, the firm also described the historical forward-return record as mixed, with readings of 8 to 12 indicators firing beating Bitcoin's baseline only at the one-year horizon.

The bond yield pressure adds a new variable to that picture. Higher long-term yields typically increase the discount rate applied to future cash flows, making non-yielding assets like Bitcoin less attractive relative to fixed income. Bessent's comments on yields during the Aug. 31 session triggered sharp intraday moves as traders repositioned ahead of the monthly close.

$83K Breakout Remains the Bull Market Test

CryptoQuant's composite gauge tracks 10 on-chain and valuation indicators, with eight of those 10 metrics now flashing bullish. The firm said apparent spot demand is expanding at its fastest monthly pace since late December, and spot and perpetual futures demand have turned positive together for the first time since early October 2025.

Despite that improvement, CryptoQuant stopped short of declaring the transition complete. "A decisive break above $83K would confirm the new bull market," the firm said. Until that happens, the level could act as initial resistance and potentially trigger an early bull-market correction.

Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton has also identified what she believes is an emerging bullish breakout. During an Aug. 25 appearance on CNBC's The Exchange, Stockton said Bitcoin was no longer oversold after the rally but had not yet pushed into an overbought position. "We have what looks to be a base breakout underway," she said.

For traders, the immediate question is whether Bitcoin can hold its August gains through the monthly close and into September. The $83,000 level on the 365-day moving average remains the key technical test, while the bond yield trajectory will determine whether risk assets can sustain their recent momentum.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.