Key Takeaways:
- NY cocoa futures doubled since March 2026, nearing $6,000 per ton
- Côte d'Ivoire 2026/27 crop forecast cut 18% to 1.7M-1.8M tons
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Cocoa doubles to $6,000 as West Africa crop faces 18% cut
New York cocoa futures traded near $6,000 per ton, doubling since March 2026, after excessive rainfall and fungal disease in West Africa triggered an 18% production cut for the 2026/27 season.
"The current weather pattern in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana is highly unusual — cool and wet conditions have created an ideal environment for Black Pod Disease and Brown Rot," Scott Marks, analyst at Jefferies, said.
June rainfall in Côte d'Ivoire exceeded the historical average by 46%, while Ghana recorded 52% above normal, according to Jefferies data. Temperatures across both countries have averaged about 2 degrees Fahrenheit below the five-year mean since March. The International Cocoa Organization now projects a 2024/25 global surplus of just 48,000 tons, down from an earlier estimate of 75,000 tons, with the global stocks-to-grind ratio remaining below its historical average.
Côte d'Ivoire Crop Forecast Cut 18% to 1.7M-1.8M Tons
Industry surveys show the 2026/27 main crop in Côte d'Ivoire, the world's largest cocoa producer, will fall to between 1.7 million and 1.8 million tons, Jefferies said. That compares with about 2.2 million tons for the 2025/26 season. The decline reflects poor flower formation and pod development during the current growing phase, with Black Pod Disease and Brown Rot accelerating pod rot and premature drop.
The supply disruption comes after two consecutive years of global deficits that pushed cocoa to a record above $12,000 per ton in 2024. While the market had been expected to return to a modest surplus in 2024/25, the latest data suggests the recovery remains fragile. Cocoa at current levels is about 50% below the all-time high but still more than double the five-year average of about $2,800 per ton.
El Niño Threat Looms Over 2026/27 Season
Traders are now monitoring the potential development of El Niño conditions later this year, Jefferies said. A shift to El Niño would likely bring hot, dry weather to West Africa, creating a rapid reversal from the current wet pattern. Such a transition could further damage flowering trees and reduce pod development, extending the supply crunch into the 2027/28 season.
The combination of confirmed near-term production losses and the risk of additional weather-driven disruption means cocoa prices are likely to remain elevated through the second half of 2026. Downstream chocolate manufacturers face continued margin pressure, with potential pass-through to consumer prices in major markets including the US and Europe.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
