Trump declares Strait of Hormuz open as 285 vessels test Iran's grip

President Donald Trump said the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial traffic, a sign that Iran's ability to weaponize the strategic waterway may be weakening despite ongoing attacks.

Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial traffic Sunday, a statement that highlights how rising global oil production and alternative shipping routes are eroding Iran's ability to use the waterway as economic leverage.

"The U.S. Military has been the key asset here. They have assured the flow of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz throughout," Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Fox News Digital. "It has not been any good behavior from Iran that's allowed oil to flow."

Brent crude rose after Iran's latest attacks on commercial shipping, though the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts worldwide crude production and trade flows will rebound to near pre-conflict levels by the end of the year. Most previously shut-in production is expected to return during the first quarter of 2027. OPEC+ continues increasing output, while Gulf producers have expanded infrastructure that allows crude to bypass the strait entirely. Saudi Arabia can divert exports through its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea, and the United Arab Emirates has expanded capacity through Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.

The developments don't eliminate Iran's ability to rattle markets — oil prices climbed after Iran's latest attacks on commercial shipping renewed fears of broader conflict. But they could make it harder for Tehran to use oil prices as leverage in negotiations with Washington, particularly as the U.S. carries out retaliatory strikes and demands Iran affirm the waterway is fully open.

Alternative Routes Reshape Gulf Shipping

Commercial shipping has adapted to the conflict by shifting toward a southern corridor hugging Oman's coastline, putting additional distance between vessels and Iran's coastline. Retired Navy Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery said the shift strikes at the heart of Iran's strategy. "The southern route creates a route they can't toll or control," he told Fox News Digital.

Former Fifth Fleet commander Vice Adm. Kevin Donegan said Iran's objective has never been to shut down the strait entirely. "The IRGC has been trying to make it commercially unworkable," Donegan said. "These attacks on shipping to me aren't random. They're strategy."

Iran's Own Exports Continue

Even as Iran disrupts commercial shipping, it continues exporting its own crude. Maritime tracking firm TankerTrackers.com reported Wednesday that three Iranian crude tankers were loaded at Kharg Island, highlighting Tehran's own dependence on oil revenue. The move shows the contradiction at the heart of Iran's strategy: disrupting competitors' shipments while maintaining its own export flows.

The U.S. has carried out retaliatory strikes against roughly 90 targets inside Iran this week in response to attacks on ships in the waterway, through which about one-fifth of the world's oil supply flows during peacetime. The strikes targeted air defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, missile and drone storage sites and naval capabilities along Iran's coastline, according to U.S. Central Command.

The White House is now demanding Iran publicly affirm that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open and that Iranian forces are not firing on vessels. A senior U.S. official told NewsNation that Trump expects Tehran to make the statement publicly and there won't be a "good outcome" if they refuse.

Only 15 ships transited the strait in the past 24 hours, according to a real-time tracking dashboard, a fraction of normal traffic. At least 285 more vessels, most of them tankers, are waiting.

The question facing the Trump administration is whether rising production, alternative shipping routes and sustained U.S. military pressure have shortened the life of Iran-induced price spikes — denying Tehran one of its most effective tools for influencing negotiations with Washington. Vice President JD Vance in late June linked global oil supplies directly to talks with Iran, saying the administration aims to "refill the world's oil economy" and "see where the hand is."

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.