U.S. retail sales rise 0.2% in June as consumers defy tariff headwinds

U.S. retail sales rose for a ninth consecutive month in June, advancing 0.2% from May to $768.6 billion, Commerce Department data showed, as consumers shrugged off tariff-driven price increases and geopolitical uncertainty.

"Consumers continue to spend on retail goods despite headwinds," said Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation. "Tax refunds exceeded last year's by over $20 billion, spurring spending across discretionary and essential goods."

E-commerce led the gains, with non-store retail sales jumping 1.9% from May and 14.2% from a year earlier, Commerce data showed. General merchandise rose 0.1% sequentially and 3.5% annually. The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, which uses actual credit and debit card data, showed total June retail sales excluding autos and gasoline rose 0.33% on a seasonally-adjusted basis and 9.41% unadjusted year over year. Core retail sales — which strip out restaurants, auto dealers and gas stations — climbed 0.36% sequentially and 10.08% annually.

The resilience in consumer spending runs counter to softer sentiment readings and suggests the economy retains momentum even as the lagged effects of Federal Reserve rate hikes and tariff pass-through costs accumulate. NRF President Matthew Shay attributed the strength to "the retail industry's laser focus on affordability as well as a durable labor market," while noting that year-over-year comparisons look particularly strong against a weak June 2025.

Dollar Sales Rise, Unit Volumes Fall

Beneath the headline strength, a divergence between dollar sales and unit volumes signals that consumers are paying more for fewer goods. Circana data showed total retail spending rose 2.7% year over year in June, while unit demand declined 0.9%. Grocery unit sales fell 1.1% even as dollar sales increased 1.4%, reflecting price inflation rather than volume growth. Fresh produce experienced the steepest volume decline, with pound sales dropping 3.8% year over year despite dollar sales rising 0.7%.

Discretionary general merchandise delivered the strongest performance, with dollar sales rising 4.8% and unit demand growing 0.9%, Circana said. Nonedible consumer packaged goods rose 3.1% in dollar terms but units fell 2.2%. Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor at Circana, said an unusual convergence of earlier summer promotional events, Father's Day, the Fourth of July holiday and America's 250th anniversary celebrations created a temporary boost unlikely to be sustained. "Consumers had more reasons to engage than they typically do between Father's Day and Independence Day," Cohen said. "These gains reflect circumstances that differ from last year and should not be interpreted as a long-term shift in consumer demand."

Chip West, director of category strategy at RR Donnelley, noted that lower gas prices in June compared with May gave consumers some breathing room, but the recent resumption of conflict in the Middle East threatens that reprieve. U.S. import prices unexpectedly rose in June, adding to cost pressures that retailers may need to pass through to consumers. The back-to-school season, which NRF expects to drive significant spending, will test whether consumer resilience holds as tariffs continue to weigh on the cost of goods.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.