XRP's 30% August gain has carried it halfway back to $3, but resistance layers and a September Senate vote now decide the recovery's fate.
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XRP needs 178% rally to reclaim $3.84 as resistance stacks up
XRP rose 30% in August to $1.38, 64.1% below its $3.84 all-time high, with resistance layers and a September 15 Senate vote blocking a record. The token touched $1.68 on August 22, its highest price in seven months, before sliding back to current levels.
Galaxy Research expects some Republicans to oppose the cloture motion on the CLARITY Act, which needs 60 votes to pass, raising the number of Democratic votes required for the measure to succeed. XRP ETF cumulative inflows reached $1.64 billion, with eight consecutive days of daily inflows since August 18, SoSoValue data shows.
Reclaiming $3.84 requires a 178.3% rally, a move XRP has not delivered since November 2024's 281.7% surge, and the path runs through four resistance zones where sellers have been active all year.
Four Resistance Zones Stand Between XRP and $3.84
XRP's immediate battle sits at the $1.40 to $1.50 zone, where sellers have rejected every rally attempt in 2026. A decisive break opens $1.53, then a more significant test at $1.59. The tougher ceiling is $1.65 to $1.70, which marks both the one-month and 13-week high; momentum indicators point to increased selling pressure there after last week's sharp gains.
Holding $1.70 opens the door to $1.83, $2.09, and $2.35, though these are major retracement zones likely to trigger profit-taking. Pushing through all three sets up a run at the 52-week high near $3.18, a 130.4% move from current levels. Reclaiming $3.18 would bring XRP within reach of $3.84, provided it holds above $3.
Bulls must defend support at $1.33 to $1.36 to preserve the recovery. Losing it could push XRP toward $1.20 and put the rally at risk.
CLARITY Vote and ETF Flows Could Break the Ceiling
The CLARITY Act, a crypto market bill that would set clearer rules for tokens like XRP, is the first driver. The Senate recessed August 8 without a full vote, prompting Senate Majority Leader John Thune to file a cloture motion that limits debate and moves the bill toward a final vote. The cloture vote is set for September 15 and needs 60 votes. If it passes, a full Senate floor vote weeks later could push XRP toward $2 and strengthen the case for a run at $3.84.
ETF inflows are the second. August inflows of $127.34 million sit just below the $131.94 million record set in May. If the funds sustain roughly $100 million in monthly inflows, the sustained demand could squeeze available supply and help XRP hold above key resistance.
XRP has delivered triple-digit gains before — 281.7% in November 2024, 122.1% in January 2021, and 174.1% in April 2021 — but the token has not traded at $3.84 since January 2018. Reaching the record again requires the CLARITY Act to become law before year-end and ETF inflows to keep pace, while buyers hold support through the September vote. Failure on any front risks a pullback toward $1.20 and a reset of the recovery.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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