Ripple CTO Emeritus David Schwartz said XRP could overtake Bitcoin by market capitalization, driven by XRP Ledger growth rather than a Bitcoin decline. Matching Bitcoin's roughly $1.58 trillion valuation would require XRP near $25.10, about 17 times its current price of $1.43.
Ripple Chief Technology Officer Emeritus David Schwartz said XRP could eventually pass Bitcoin by market capitalization, a claim that requires the token to rise roughly 17-fold from about $1.43 to near $25.10.
"Yeah, I do," Schwartz said during an X Space on Wednesday, when asked whether he believed XRP could flip Bitcoin. "But I think it wouldn't happen from Bitcoin shrinking. It would happen from XRP growing faster than Bitcoin."
Schwartz, who helped design the XRP Ledger, argued that the digital-asset market will expand enough for the largest tokens to appreciate together, with the XRPL taking a disproportionate share because of its speed and feature set. "The XRP Ledger gets more of that growth because of its higher functionality and/or higher speed, and/or people are interested in features that Bitcoin can't support," he said. He added that an XRP surge is "probably more likely than not."
The arithmetic behind that view is unforgiving. CoinCodex puts Bitcoin's market capitalization at about $1.58 trillion against XRP's $88.9 billion, a gap of roughly $1.49 trillion that leaves Bitcoin about 17.7 times larger. With 62.74 billion XRP in circulation, matching Bitcoin's current valuation implies a price near $25.10 — and that threshold rises if Bitcoin appreciates. A doubling of Bitcoin's market cap would push the required XRP price above $50.
XRP last traded near $1.42 to $1.44, down about 4.65% on the day, according to CoinGecko data. The token's market value is now roughly 5.6% of Bitcoin's, a fraction of the 40% ratio it held on Jan. 1, 2018, when XRP's $92.6 billion market cap sat against Bitcoin's $229.1 billion and XRP ranked as the world's second-largest cryptocurrency.
The clearest evidence for Schwartz's adoption argument sits in regulated fund flows rather than price. U.S. spot XRP ETFs drew $1.55 million of net inflows on Sept. 8, the only positive print among major crypto funds that day, while Bitcoin ETFs shed $46.65 million, Ethereum ETFs lost $24.29 million and Solana ETFs gave up $667,000, according to CoinGape. XRP funds previously logged their strongest week of 2026 at $110.49 million, lifting cumulative inflows to about $1.66 billion.
Institutional ownership has followed. Goldman Sachs disclosed the largest XRP ETF position at roughly $87.4 million, and Ripple's long-running SEC litigation has ended, leaving XRP with a clearer U.S. regulatory standing than most large-cap tokens. That combination — ETF demand, a named bank on the holder list, and legal closure — is what separates this round of flippening talk from the retail-driven version in 2018.
Bitcoin's own flows tell the opposite story in the short term. Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs on Sept. 8 followed three consecutive days of inflows, and the total crypto market cap slipped 0.33%, or about $8.88 billion, during the session. XRP's relative strength came against a falling market, not a rising one.
Technical analysts have attached a far more aggressive number to the same narrative. Ali Martinez has outlined a $60 XRP target based on an ascending triangle he says has formed on the monthly chart for nearly a decade, with $3.66 as the critical resistance. A monthly close above that level would confirm the breakout in his reading and activate the target — roughly 2.4 times the $25.10 needed for a flippening at today's Bitcoin valuation.
Neither number is a forecast. Both depend on the XRPL capturing real activity: payment volume, stablecoin issuance, tokenized real-world assets and active addresses. Schwartz's claim is a bet on that adoption curve steepening, not on Bitcoin weakening. XRP/BTC traded at 0.00001811 on Wednesday, up 0.28%, a reminder of how little the pair has moved relative to the rhetoric.
For the flippening to become more than a talking point, XRP ETF inflows need to keep outpacing Bitcoin's, and XRPL on-chain activity needs to show up in the same data. Until then, the gap is $1.49 trillion wide.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
