Bitcoin's price growth has stalled despite significant ETF accumulation, due to profit-taking by long-term holders and increased derivatives market activity.

Executive Summary

Despite institutional buying of Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs and accumulation by treasury companies, BTC's price has stagnated, even after briefly touching new all-time highs. This is primarily attributed to profit-taking by long-term holders and increased activity in the derivatives market, which are effectively neutralizing the bullish impact of institutional inflows.

The Event in Detail

Over the past few months, ETFs and treasury companies have accumulated approximately 200,000 BTC, bringing total treasury holdings close to 1 million Bitcoin. However, since July, over 450,000 BTC have moved from long-term wallets to newer market participants. This distribution from holders who accumulated at lower prices is offsetting the demand from institutional buyers. Open interest in derivatives has increased by roughly 50,000 BTC across exchanges since July, indicating more capital is being used for leveraged bets instead of spot accumulation.

Market Implications

The increased activity in CME futures and options markets is amplifying the influence of derivatives on short-term Bitcoin price movements. This results in more liquidity being tied up in contracts, which reduces direct buy pressure on BTC. The imbalance between accumulation and distribution suggests that sideways price action may persist in the short term.

Expert Commentary

According to on-chain data, selling pressure is accelerating from Bitcoin holders who have held for four to ten years. The distribution from these long-term holders is effectively neutralizing the bullish impact of institutional inflows on the Bitcoin price.

Broader Context

In previous cycles, Long-Term Holder NUPL (LTH-NUPL) increased above 0.75 for several months before the market peaked, trading there for six months in 2017 and four months in 2021. In the current Bitcoin cycle, the on-chain indicator barely crossed 0.75 for less than a month before falling. This cycle differs from previous ones, where movements above 0.75 followed by a decrease below have each time meant that the Bitcoin price has started its bear market. Current market conditions suggest more choppy consolidation in the short term. However, if funding rates turn negative, a short squeeze could potentially fuel another upward movement in the Bitcoin price. The imbalance between accumulation and distribution indicates that sideways price action may continue. Despite these factors, spot accumulation is occurring, and without it, the Bitcoin price would likely be trading significantly lower than its current levels.