Northeastern's Shelat, A16z Crypto Unveil Threshold ECDSA Breakthrough, Reducing Round Complexity to 2-3

source:

[1] Threshold ECDSA in 3 rounds - a16z crypto (https://a16zcrypto.com/posts/videos/threshold ...)[2] Key Discovery in ECDSA: Understanding Implementation and Security Risk - Hacken.io (https://hacken.io/discover/key-discovery-in-e ...)[3] Threshold ECDSA in 3 rounds with Abhi Shelat | a16z crypto research talks - YouTube (https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/groun ...)

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Dec 06 2025, 06:03

Ancient Bitcoin Whale Surfaces With $179M

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Dec 05 2025, 22:34

Bitcoin Tests Key Support as Sell-Side Pressure Mounts

## Executive Summary Bitcoin is currently navigating a period of heightened volatility and conflicting market signals. On-chain data from **Binance** indicates significant short-term, bearish pressure, characterized by an increase in whale deposits to exchanges—a classic precursor to profit-taking. This tactical selling contrasts sharply with a bullish long-term institutional posture, exemplified by corporate treasuries and mining operations accumulating **BTC** as a strategic reserve asset. Compounding this dynamic is a favorable macroeconomic environment, where an anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut and a weakening U.S. dollar could bolster risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. ## The Event in Detail Data from **Binance** on November 28, 2025, highlighted a build-up of sell-side pressure on **Bitcoin**. An uptick in **BTC** inflows to the exchange, particularly from large holders or "whales," suggests a move to secure profits. Simultaneously, high deposits of **USDT** indicate that traders are capitalizing their accounts in preparation for increased market volatility and potential buying opportunities at lower price points. This on-chain activity follows a recent period of extreme price movement, which one market analyst, Mark Moss, attributed to mechanical, structural forces rather than a fundamental shift in sentiment. A massive options expiration event reportedly triggered the largest liquidation cascade ever recorded, wiping out approximately $20 billion in leveraged positions in under 24 hours. ## Market Implications This confluence of factors has led to **Bitcoin** price consolidation around the $92,000 level, with technical analysis pointing to significant overhead resistance near $95,000. A failure to overcome this level could confirm a short-term bearish structure. Concurrently, a notable trend is the decline in **Bitcoin** dominance (BTC.D), which, coupled with a breakout in the **ETH/BTC** trading pair, historically signals the potential for capital rotation into alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins). This suggests that while **Bitcoin** may face immediate headwinds, broader market liquidity could be shifting into other digital assets, potentially sparking an "alt-season." ## Expert Commentary Market experts offer a multi-layered perspective. According to Mark Moss, the recent market turbulence was a "glitch in the plumbing" of the market structure, and underlying demand remains robust enough to absorb the heavy selling pressure. He also points to the broader fragmentation of global finance, evidenced by the first central bank digital currency (CBDC) payment between the UAE and China on the **mBridge** network, as a long-term catalyst for hard assets like **Bitcoin**. Strategists at **JPMorgan** maintain a long-term bullish outlook, citing a volatility-adjusted model that implies a theoretical **Bitcoin** price of approximately $170,000. However, they identify two critical near-term risks centered on **MicroStrategy (MSTR)**: 1. The risk of the firm selling its **BTC** holdings, which the bank deems "even less likely" now that **MicroStrategy** has raised $1.4 billion in cash reserves. 2. An upcoming MSCI decision in January on whether to exclude companies with significant digital asset holdings from its indexes, which could force index funds to sell **MSTR** stock. ## Broader Context This market dynamic highlights a growing divergence between short-term trading and long-term investment strategies. While some whales engage in profit-taking, institutional entities are pursuing a strategy of accumulation. **American Bitcoin**, a mining company founded by Eric Trump, recently increased its holdings by 363 **BTC** to a total of 4,367 **BTC**. This "HODL" strategy, which mirrors the playbook of **MicroStrategy**, treats **Bitcoin** as a strategic treasury asset, reducing immediate sell-side pressure from mining operations and signaling deep confidence in its long-term value. This institutional conviction is supported by a global macroeconomic shift. With the U.S. Federal Reserve widely expected to cut interest rates and central banks in Japan and China signaling further economic stimulus, the global liquidity cycle appears to be turning upward. Such conditions historically favor risk assets and could provide a strong tailwind for **Bitcoin** and the broader cryptocurrency market heading into 2026.

Dec 05 2025, 21:40

Bitcoin Draws Haven Bids On Fed Pivot, AI Risk

## Executive Summary Two significant market forces are converging to create a favorable environment for **Bitcoin**. First, a macroeconomic shift, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve's anticipated pivot away from quantitative tightening, is increasing market liquidity and suppressing yields on traditional assets. Second, microeconomic concerns are mounting around a potential debt-fueled bubble in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector, where companies are undertaking massive capital expenditures. This combination is driving investors to re-evaluate risk and seek out scarce, alternative assets, with **Bitcoin** emerging as a primary beneficiary. ## The Event in Detail ### Federal Reserve Policy Pivot Market participants are pricing in a high probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch tool, futures are pricing a near 90% chance of a quarter-point cut at the next meeting. A move toward lower rates makes fixed-income assets like U.S. Treasury bonds less appealing, as their yields decline. This expansionary monetary policy increases overall market liquidity, encouraging investors to move capital into assets with higher return potential or different risk characteristics. As global markets anticipate this shift, assets with fixed supplies, such as **Bitcoin**, become theoretically more attractive as a hedge against currency debasement and inflation. ### The AI Debt Bubble The boom in AI has been fueled by enormous capital investments in infrastructure, particularly GPUs. Companies like **Nvidia** (**NVDA**), which have seen dramatic growth, rely heavily on one-time, high-value sales of hardware to a concentrated client base. For example, in a recent quarter, nearly 40% of **Nvidia's** sales came from just two customers. This business model is highly exposed to capital expenditure cycles. Should major tech firms decide they have "sufficient compute" and pause orders, revenue could be immediately impacted. Other major tech firms, such as **Oracle** (**ORCL**), have also taken on significant debt to finance AI-related capital expenditures, reportedly reaching $35 billion in fiscal year 2026. While some analysts believe these concerns are overstated due to pre-sold cloud contracts, the high leverage across the sector has prompted investors to consider the systemic risk of an AI-driven credit event. ## Market Implications The confluence of these factors is steering a significant capital rotation. With returns on traditional safe-haven assets like bonds diminishing, and the high-growth tech sector showing signs of credit-related stress, investors are looking for non-correlated alternatives. **Bitcoin**, with its decentralized nature and capped supply, is being positioned as a hedge against two distinct risks: the inflationary pressures of expansionary monetary policy and a potential downturn in the tech sector triggered by a pop in the AI bubble. This dual role enhances its appeal as a portfolio diversifier, distinct from equities and bonds. The price action reflects this sentiment, as capital appears to be flowing into **Bitcoin** as a proactive measure against these emerging financial risks. ## Expert Commentary Market sentiment reflects a cautious yet opportunistic stance. Michael Farr, CEO of Farr, Miller & Washington, noted that markets could be "disappointed" if the Federal Reserve's actions do not align with dovish expectations, highlighting the sensitivity to central bank messaging. Regarding the AI sector's financial health, a Citi analyst report offers a counterpoint to the alarm, stating that concerns around **Oracle's** debt are "overstated" and more indicative of a "thematic AI hedging dynamic" rather than a fundamental credit issue. From a global perspective, Masahiko Loo, a strategist at State Street Investment Management, suggests that while the narrowing Japan-U.S. yield gap could cause "episodic volatility and selective deleveraging," he does not "expect a repeat of the 2024 systemic unwind." This suggests that while global markets may face turbulence, a full-blown crisis from unwinding yen-carry trades is not the base case. ## Broader Context The situation is amplified by monetary policy dilemmas in other major economies. The Bank of Japan is currently grappling with rising government bond yields, which complicates its ability to normalize policy without triggering fiscal strain or further market volatility. The narrowing yield differential between the U.S. and Japan reduces the appeal of the yen-funded carry trade, a multi-trillion dollar strategy that has influenced global asset prices for years. Any significant repatriation of funds to Japan could introduce further volatility into global markets. In this uncertain environment, assets that are perceived as being outside the traditional financial system, like **Bitcoin**, may continue to attract haven bids as investors seek to insulate their portfolios from central bank policy errors and over-leveraged corporate sectors.