Polymarket Integrates Bitcoin Deposits, Eyes $1 Billion Valuation Amid Record BTC Inflows

The Event in Detail

Polymarket, an on-chain prediction market, announced on October 7 that it now supports direct Bitcoin (BTC) deposits. This integration expands user funding options beyond existing tokens across Ethereum, Polygon, Base, Arbitrum, and Solana networks. The move aligns with Polymarket's reported efforts to secure a $200 million funding round, which could potentially value the company at approximately $1 billion.

This expansion occurs during a period of significant appreciation for Bitcoin, which recently surpassed $125,736, trading near its all-time high and settling around $124,300. The cryptocurrency's market capitalization now exceeds $2.47 trillion, representing over half of the $4.24 trillion total crypto market value. Year-to-date, BTC has gained over 34 percent, outperforming major equity indexes.

Financial Mechanics and Strategic Positioning

Polymarket's integration of Bitcoin facilitates direct user participation in its decentralized markets, allowing users to stake BTC on various real-world events. This strategic enhancement aims to boost liquidity and accessibility, building on previous integrations such as Solana's native token (SOL) earlier in the year.

The reported $200 million funding round, if finalized, underscores investor confidence and would provide substantial capital for Polymarket's growth and operational expansion. Sources indicate Peter Thiel's Founders Fund may lead this investment. This financial injection positions Polymarket to capitalize on the increasing demand for decentralized prediction markets.

Polymarket has navigated prior regulatory challenges, including a 2022 CFTC enforcement action for operating unregistered event-based contracts. Following the acquisition of QCX, a Florida-based derivatives exchange, Polymarket received a no-action letter from the CFTC in September. This regulatory clearance indicates a pathway for compliant operations concerning certain recordkeeping and data, thereby strengthening its market positioning.

Broader Market Implications

Polymarket's decision to accept Bitcoin deposits contributes to a broader trend of integrating BTC more deeply into decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols. This development enhances Bitcoin's utility beyond a store of value and could encourage other platforms to incorporate the cryptocurrency, thereby solidifying its role within the wider crypto ecosystem.

Bitcoin's recent price surge has been significantly influenced by institutional inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Over the last seven days, these ETFs recorded $3.24 billion in net inflows, marking the second-largest haul since their inception. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) captured $1.8 billion of these inflows, with Fidelity's FBTC attracting $692 million. Cumulative monthly inflows have surpassed $4 billion, reversing prior outflows and reflecting overwhelmingly positive institutional positioning.

According to JPMorgan data, total ETF-related treasury reallocation could reach $20 billion by December 2025, potentially sustaining Bitcoin prices toward the $150,000–$200,000 range under favorable macroeconomic conditions. This institutional embrace positions Bitcoin as a significant asset for diversification and strategic allocation.

Outlook and Expert Consensus

The current market environment, characterized by Bitcoin's robust performance and substantial ETF inflows, suggests a sustained bullish sentiment. Institutional outlooks converge on continued upside for Bitcoin.

Standard Chartered maintains a $200,000 target, JPMorgan forecasts $165,000, Bernstein Research aligns around $180,000, and Fundstrat's Tom Lee estimates a $150,000–$175,000 fair-value range. Aggregated across major sell-side desks, the consensus year-end 2025 expectation for Bitcoin sits at approximately $156,000, about 25 percent above current levels.

From a technical perspective, BTC-USD has completed a clean breakout from a two-month descending channel. Immediate support is identified at $120,000, where July 2025 highs converged with heavy ETF-related inflows. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below its December 2024 extreme, indicating momentum headroom. A "golden-cross" pattern, where the 100-day moving average rises through $120,000 and intersects the 200-day at $118,700, typically precedes multi-month bullish trends. Price projection models suggest a potential acceleration to $130,000–$132,000 in the near term if prices maintain closes above $126,000, with a further potential to $150,000–$160,000 within twelve weeks based on historical bar-pattern symmetry.