Anthropic's $100 billion IPO nears as underwriter, exchange calls loom

Wall Street's marquee autumn event is shaping up to be Anthropic's public debut, a listing that could eclipse every IPO in history — yet the AI giant still has critical decisions to finalize before shares begin trading.

"If Anthropic can raise roughly $100 billion through its IPO, its rapidly growing revenue could help the company earn an investment-grade rating," said Jordan Chalfin, head of technology at CreditSights.

The company confidentially filed its registration statement with the SEC on June 1 and could make the paperwork public as early as next week, with a roadshow planned for late September and trading potentially beginning in late September or early October. Morgan Stanley is the frontrunner for the "lead left" bookrunner role and has begun discussing offering pricing with potential investors, while Goldman Sachs is expected to serve as stabilization agent, according to people familiar with the matter. JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Barclays are also expected to secure significant roles.

The stakes are enormous. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley each earned $100 million on SpaceX's offering in June, and Anthropic's deal could be even larger. The listing would mark the first public-market test of whether AI's biggest private companies can sustain their valuations, with Anthropic projecting a total addressable market of more than $30 trillion.

Nasdaq's index rule could tip exchange decision

The exchange choice pits Nasdaq against the NYSE. SpaceX chose Nasdaq in June, a significant win for the Midtown exchange, driven in part by a rule change allowing large newly public companies to join the Nasdaq-100 index months sooner than usual. That enables faster inclusion in tracking funds such as Invesco's QQQ, which can add upward momentum to a stock.

October window narrows as Fed, holidays collide

Companies want investors' full attention when pitching their public stock for the first time. A late Labor Day, the timing of Jewish holidays, and a Federal Reserve meeting where the central bank might change interest rates could push the launch to October or later, according to people familiar with the matter. Waiting could also allow Anthropic to share preliminary third-quarter financials with prospective investors. The midterm elections in early November and potential stock-market swings they could bring add another layer of complexity. Large IPOs typically take place before Thanksgiving to avoid the holiday lull, though there have been exceptions, including Airbnb's December debut in 2020.

Anthropic's revenue momentum is strong — July annualized run-rate reached $65 billion, up from $47 billion in May — but the company remains unprofitable. Its flagship Fable 5 model, released June 10, accounted for just 6 percent of purchased tokens, as customers gravitate toward cheaper alternatives. Open-weight models now represent 62 percent of total token volume, up from 28.4 percent at the end of June, a shift that could pressure the economics of frontier model development.

The IPO would also reshape the credit landscape. SpaceX received investment-grade ratings from all three major agencies immediately after its June listing and issued $25 billion in bonds days later. Anthropic and OpenAI are both working with investment banks to lobby Fitch, Moody's, and S&P for similar treatment, which would open access to the roughly $11.7 trillion U.S. corporate bond market. Nvidia has provided $105 billion in credit support for OpenAI's data center in Ohio, an arrangement that terminates once OpenAI obtains a satisfactory credit rating.

Evercore ISI strategists led by Julian Emanuel warn the dual mega-IPOs could accelerate selling in weaker AI-related stocks as investors "make room" in their portfolios, particularly as the mutual fund tax-loss selling season approaches in October. Names flagged as vulnerable include IBM, Tesla, and AppLovin, all down at least 10 percent year-to-date with negative earnings-revision trends.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.