Bitcoin's 21% five-day gain has analysts declaring the bear market over as it reclaims a key moving average that marked prior cycle bottoms.
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Bitcoin exits bear market as analysts revive $100K-$150K targets
Bitcoin's 21% five-day gain has analysts declaring the bear market over as it reclaims a key moving average that marked prior cycle bottoms.
"Exactly the type of thing Bitcoin loves," Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said of the US Treasury's expanded bond buybacks, adding that his $100,000 year-end target could be "too low."
The rally was fueled by $1.6 billion in US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows between Monday and Thursday, including $606 million on Thursday alone — the strongest daily inflow since May. More than $4 billion in bearish crypto positions were liquidated during the move. Bitcoin traded at $75,950 early Sunday, down 1.5% on the session after touching $79,176.
The immediate question is whether institutional buying persists once the short squeeze runs its course. If ETF inflows continue alongside a weaker dollar and easier Treasury conditions, Standard Chartered's $100,000 target looks achievable. Bernstein's $150,000 forecast would require a much larger restoration of institutional demand.
The 1,130-Day Signal
Bitcoin reclaimed its 1,130-day simple moving average on Aug 20 after spending about 80 days below the indicator, according to analysis shared by crypto analyst Ali Martinez. In each of the previous four market cycles — 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2023 — Bitcoin entered a sustained bull market shortly after recovering this level. The indicator successfully identified major bear market bottoms before significant rallies followed. Bitcoin lost the 1,130-day SMA on June 1, 2026, when prices dropped below $60,000.
Diverging Forecasts
Bernstein's Gautam Chhugani and his team continue to target $150,000 by end-2026 with a $200,000 cycle peak penciled in for 2027. The analysts said they were watching fund flows for "any signs of life" — those signs have now appeared. Strategy remains a substantial buyer, and the Treasury intervention has provided the liquidity boost Bitcoin had been missing.
Citi provides the cautious counterweight, cutting its 12-month Bitcoin forecast to $82,000 from $112,000 in July and retaining a $53,000 bear case under recessionary conditions. The bank had reduced its assumption for Bitcoin ETF inflows over the following year from $10 billion to zero.
Prediction markets remain cautious about near-term upside. Polymarket traders assign an 8% probability that Bitcoin touches $90,000 before Sept 1, with a 70% probability of reaching $77,500 and a 52% chance of $82,500.
The balance of evidence has shifted. Bitcoin has gone from searching for a bottom below $60,000 to testing whether liquidity, regulatory, and institutional pieces are finally aligning for another attempt at six figures. If the 1,130-day SMA holds as support, the path toward $100,000 becomes a question of timing rather than possibility.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
