Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin's death cross persists even as a weak July jobs report pushed September rate-hike odds down to 40 percent.
Bitcoin traded at $64,938, up 1.06 percent, after July payrolls fell 23,000 and CME FedWatch cut September rate-hike odds to 40 percent from 55 percent.
The jobs report marked the first net loss since the pandemic-era recovery, missing the 95,000 gain economists expected. June's gain was revised to 20,000 from 57,000, and May was nearly halved. Treasury yields fell and the dollar dropped 0.5 percent, a macro backdrop that typically supports risk assets.
The technical picture remains bearish. Bitcoin topped near $80,000 in mid-May, then slid to a July low around $58,000. The 50-day EMA sits below the 200-day EMA in a death cross, and price has not reclaimed either average. RSI reads 54.6 — neutral momentum, no fuel for a breakout and no washout either.
The bull case requires a daily close above the 50-day EMA and $66,000 resistance, opening a run at the 200-day EMA and the cloud top near $72,000. The bear case: a break below $60,000 confirms the downtrend and points back to the July low of $58,000. On Myriad, traders price nearly 65 percent odds Bitcoin returns to $55,000 before any recovery toward $84,000.
Since the July low, the decline has flattened into a sideways coil. Price has compressed below both moving averages, and each attempt to reclaim the 50-day line has failed. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1 percent only because more people exited the labor force entirely — a sign of economic fragility rather than strength.
The softer Fed path is a tailwind for risk assets, but the chart shows a market that hasn't reclaimed its trend. A softer Fed and a weak dollar give the bull case a reason to fire, but the death cross formation — where the shorter average sits under the longer one — keeps the medium-term trajectory pointed down.
For now, $65,000 is the line in the sand. Above the 50-day EMA, the July chop looks like base-building; below $60,000, it looks like a bear flag. A daily close under $58,000 would reopen the spring downtrend that carried Bitcoin from $80,000 to the July low.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
