Bitcoin holds above $77,500 as Fed hike odds ease to 62%

Fed rate-hike expectations eased to 62 percent on Sept. 3, helping Bitcoin hold above $77,500 as XRP led major-crypto gains.

Bitcoin changed hands between $78,400 and $78,743 on Thursday morning, up 2.5 percent over 24 hours, with buyers defending the $76,229 support floor while resistance near $79,000 slowed the recovery, CoinDesk chart analysis showed.

The softer hike odds loosened the tightening overhang that had capped upside across digital assets in recent sessions. With the probability of an imminent Fed move now below two-thirds, traders scaled back the defensive positioning built during the pullback, and the bid broadened beyond Bitcoin into the altcoin complex. XRP's outperformance points to rotation as capital that had sheltered in the largest token sought higher-beta exposure.

The technical backdrop supports the recovery even as momentum lags. Bitcoin's daily chart shows 13 moving-average buy signals against two oscillator sell readings, with the 10-, 20-, 30-, 50-, 100- and 200-period exponential averages all pointing higher. Oscillators are less convinced: the relative strength index sits at 67, below the overbought threshold of 70, while momentum and the moving-average convergence divergence carry bearish readings, leaving the rebound short of full confirmation.

The four-hour chart shows a flush-and-reclaim pattern, where Bitcoin was rejected from $78,389, dropped to $76,229 and then recovered toward the $77,700 to $78,100 zone. Recovery volume has not matched the volume during the decline, limiting evidence for a fresh trend leg.

The setup keeps Bitcoin range-bound inside a broader upswing that began from an August baseline near $62,216 and reached roughly $81,455. The seven-day band spans $76,297 to $81,281, with the price in the middle-to-upper portion. A daily close above about $81,280 would mark the upside trigger, while a break below $76,230 would weaken the structure and reopen $74,600 and then $71,000 to $72,900.

Holding $77,500 to $77,600 keeps the long-side context intact, with $79,000 to $80,000 serving as the zone to scale out. A break below $77,500 on expanding volume would put a retest of $76,229 in play.

The macro repricing is the swing factor to watch. A continued decline in Fed hike odds would likely sustain the rally toward the $81,280 trigger, while any hawkish repricing would pressure prices back toward the lower end of the range. The 62 percent reading leaves room for further easing if incoming data softens, but it also keeps a hike on the table, meaning Bitcoin's recovery depends on the odds staying below that threshold.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.