Bitcoin holds near $65,000 as traders await July FOMC rate decision

Bitcoin traded near $65,600 as of 06:00 UTC Thursday, consolidating after a 5% weekly gain that lifted the asset 13% from its July 1 low of $57,750. The Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting starting July 28 is the next macro event, with economists surveyed by Reuters expecting the central bank to hold its benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75%.

"The main catalyst is the Fed meeting on July 28 and 29, which the market is treating as the thing that resolves the range one way or the other," Maxime Seiler, cofounder and CEO of STS Digital, said. "On the downside, $60,000 is still the level the market cares about."

Bitcoin's futures open interest has slipped to 743,000 BTC from more than 760,000 BTC earlier this week, indicating an unwinding of existing bets as the rally stalls. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $930.2 million in net inflows over six consecutive sessions through July 21, though preliminary data for July 22 showed just $3.8 million, according to SoSoValue. The 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has risen for five straight days — a pattern that has historically preceded price declines since spot ETFs launched.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin faces immediate resistance between $66,500 and $67,000, with the short-term holder cost basis near $69,000 representing a more consequential hurdle. On the downside, the $64,000 to $64,950 zone serves as near-term support, while on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows roughly 10% of Bitcoin's supply has a cost basis near $63,000, creating a structural demand shelf. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, identified $64,000 as a support level and $72,000 as resistance, calling them "reliable support and resistance levels during this bear market."

Fed decision sets the next directional trigger

The July 28-29 meeting comes as oil prices above $94 a barrel and the US 10-year Treasury yield near 4.66% have revived inflation concerns, with fed funds futures pricing nearly a 70% probability of a rate increase by March 2027. A hawkish hold or rate hike signal could strengthen the dollar and pressure risk assets including crypto, while a dovish outcome may allow Bitcoin to test the $70,000 to $72,000 upside zone Seiler highlighted. Options traders have built nearly $2.5 billion in positions targeting $72,000 by the end of July, according to CoinSwitch, pointing to elevated volatility expectations around the decision.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.