Bitcoin nears $80,000 after 20% weekly rally on Treasury buybacks

Bitcoin reached $79,500 Friday, up 24 percent from Wednesday's $64,100 low, as Treasury buybacks and ETF inflows fueled a 20 percent weekly rally.

"The buyback and the Clarity Act got it moving, but now every leg up is wiping out more shorts, and those liquidations are what's pushing it into the $79,000s," William Stern, founder of Cardiff, said.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in roughly $1.6 billion this week, with several days ranking among the top-10 best net-flow days of 2026, according to Thomas Perfumo, global economist at Kraken. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.65 percent on Aug. 19 after reaching 4.75 percent on July 31, while the Fed funds target range remains 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent.

Bitcoin needs to gain roughly 29 percent from current levels to reclaim $100,000, but the first test is its 2026 high near $97,900. A sustained move through that level would leave the six-figure threshold only a few percentage points away.

Treasury Buybacks Ease the Macro Squeeze

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's announcement of expanded long-duration buybacks initially pushed yields lower and weakened the dollar, helping fuel rallies in both Bitcoin and gold. The move matters because Bitcoin faces a tougher backdrop when real yields and the dollar are climbing aggressively.

"When the US government buys long-dated treasuries to artificially dampen rates, it pushes investors towards assets like BTC and gold," Brian Huang, cofounder of fintech firm Glider, said. "The treasury auctions over $200 billion in 30-year bonds each year. Compared to BTC's $1.6 trillion market cap and thinner liquidity, a trickle in the bond market is enough to rip BTC higher."

Seasonally adjusted M2 reached approximately $23.16 trillion in June, up about 0.4 percent from May, according to Federal Reserve data. Broad money supply expansion does not guarantee higher Bitcoin prices, but improving liquidity is a friendlier backdrop than contracting money supply.

The latest leg has also been powered by forced buying. Billions of dollars in crypto shorts were liquidated as Bitcoin climbed above $79,000 this week. But short squeezes eventually run out of shorts, and organic buyers must replace forced buyers for the rally to continue.

"Bitcoin climbing to roughly $79,500 isn't really a crypto story, it's a liquidity story," Terence McMenamin, CEO and cofounder of Techdollar, said. "The bigger catalyst is the shift in the macro backdrop. The Treasury's decision to increase long-duration bond buybacks has eased some pressure in the bond market and weakened the dollar, while growing regulatory clarity is giving institutional investors another reason to put capital to work."

The SEC has proposed a new crypto regulatory framework, and Washington continues working toward broader digital-asset legislation. The SEC also approved in-kind creation and redemption mechanisms for certain crypto ETPs in 2025, allowing authorized participants to transact using crypto assets rather than relying exclusively on cash.

Bitcoin's RSI hit 74 and MACD turned positive in mid-August, but a near-identical July spike reversed within a month, meaning momentum must persist through September. The first real test is not $100,000 but Bitcoin's 2026 high near $97,900. A sustained move through that level would signal the market has absorbed the supply that capped the January rally.

Anthony Scaramucci has remained publicly bullish on Bitcoin eventually reclaiming $100,000 and said this week that the level became a "magic number" where some longtime Bitcoin holders sold during the previous run.

The risk is that this week's surge has simply pulled future demand forward. If ETF inflows fade and yields begin climbing again, Bitcoin could give back a meaningful portion of the rally. For now, $100,000 is back in play, but the number investors should watch first is roughly $97,900.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.