Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin's bounce toward $65,000 proved fleeting as spot market demand deteriorated to its weakest level in months, even as spot ETF inflows resumed.
Bitcoin spot demand declined to negative 170,000 BTC on a 30-day basis, erasing a brief recovery in early July, CryptoQuant data show.
"The rally without meaningful spot demand is likely to end in a significant long liquidation event," CryptoQuant contributor ScenarioX wrote in a blog post Monday.
The 30-day spot demand metric recovered to around negative 80,000 BTC in early July before deteriorating to nearly negative 170,000 BTC, according to CryptoQuant. The decline came even as US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for four of five trading days last week, per Farside Investors data. The divergence suggests institutional accumulation via ETF products is being offset by selling in the spot market.
The structural fragility leaves Bitcoin vulnerable to a sharp downside move if renewed spot selling emerges, with the next key support at $63,322 — the 200-week simple moving average — and a break below that opening a path toward $60,000.
Three on-chain signals flash bearish
Beyond the spot demand deterioration, at least three on-chain metrics point to weakening buying pressure. Stablecoin reserves on Binance and Bybit declined by roughly $2.3 billion over the past 30 days, according to analyst Darkfost, indicating investors are withdrawing dry powder rather than keeping it available for trading.
The Coinbase Premium Index has remained consistently below zero since early May and stood at negative 0.062 on Monday, pointing to subdued buying interest from US-based institutional investors. Bitcoin traded at a discount on Coinbase relative to global exchanges.
Recent top buyers — those who entered between $75,000 and $126,000 over the past six to 18 months — are now selling at a loss. This cohort holds 2,450 BTC at a loss on exchanges on a 30-day average, with realized losses near $90 million monthly, Darkfost said.
Macro headwinds gather as oil surges
Geopolitical risk added pressure Monday as Brent crude rose as much as 4% to $91.42 a barrel, its highest since June, as US and Iranian strikes widened. War-driven oil gains rekindle inflation concerns that had eased on this month's soft US price data, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve's rate path.
Bitcoin traded at $64,200 at 14:00 UTC, roughly flat on the day and up 3% on the week, with about $18 billion changing hands, CoinGecko data show. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 29 out of 100, still in "fear" territory but at its highest since the start of June.
The week's key test comes from corporate earnings, with Alphabet reporting Tuesday, Tesla Wednesday and Intel Thursday — results that will signal whether the AI trade that Bitcoin has tracked this month still has a floor.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
