Key Takeaways:
Spot gold closed at $4,602.99 an ounce Friday, up 1.86 percent, after clearing its 200-day moving average as the dollar slid to a three-month low.
COMEX gold drew renewed speculative interest as Treasury buybacks of longer-dated debt eased yields, according to Goldman Sachs.
Spot gold hit a session high of $4,632.15 and a low of $4,509.00, its strongest level in more than three months. The metal is up more than 5 percent on the week, heading for a third straight weekly gain.
Gold last traded above $4,700 in May. The next test is the $4,654-$4,689 resistance zone, with US PCE inflation data Wednesday and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole address Friday.
The US Treasury said it would at least double buybacks of government bonds maturing in 10 to 30 years, with operations starting at a minimum of $4 billion each. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said amounts could increase. The announcement came after the 30-year yield reached its highest level in nearly 20 years, near 5.25 percent Friday, with the 10-year around 4.69 percent.
The dollar index slipped toward 98.6, headed for a weekly loss of nearly 1 percent. A weaker dollar lowers the cost of gold for overseas buyers. US government debt has passed $40 trillion, and the buyback does not reduce the new supply that must still be sold.
Spot gold reentered the 50 percent to 61.8 percent retracement zone of the rally from $3,886.46 to $5,602.23, a band spanning $4,541.88 to $4,744.34. The metal spent most of April and May straddling this zone before collapsing to $3,941.20 on June 30. Trader reaction to this area should set the near-term direction.
TD Securities global head of commodity strategy Bart Melek said the next step is $4,700 if momentum continues. A sustained break above that level would expose the $4,770-$4,780 region, with technical analyst Bruce Powers identifying the April swing high near $4,891 as the larger objective. Support sits at $4,500-$4,516, with a daily close below $4,500 risking a retreat toward $4,450.
Central-bank accumulation remains steady underneath the market, with China among countries adding to reserves. Indian gold imports recovered to 40-45 tonnes in July from 20 tonnes in June, with value more than doubling to $4.16 billion, according to the World Gold Council. UBS expects gold to reach $5,000 an ounce in the first half of 2027.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
