Key Takeaways:
- Gold spot near $4,670 an ounce, up almost 16% in August from $4,040
- BofA projects $4,750 in Q1 2027, $5,000 in Q2, full-year average of $4,813
- Central-bank buying hit 51 tonnes in June, roughly double the 27-tonne monthly average
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Gold tops $4,650 as BofA targets $5,000 by 2027
Gold traded near $4,670 an ounce late Tuesday, up almost 16% in August, after Bank of America projected a move toward $5,000 in 2027.
Investor purchases must accelerate for gold to push toward $5,000, Michael Widmer, commodity strategist at Bank of America, said, noting current buying is more consistent with a price near $4,000 an ounce.
Bank of America sees the quarterly gold profile rising from $4,250 in Q4 2026 to $4,750 in Q1 2027 and $5,000 in Q2, for a full-year 2027 average of $4,813. Central-bank purchases reached 51 tonnes in June, almost twice the preceding 12-month monthly average of 27 tonnes, while gold ETFs recorded about 70 metric tons of net inflows in July and August, reversing 93 tons of outflows in May and June, according to Morgan Stanley data.
Gold last traded above $4,700 in mid-May. Wednesday's US PCE inflation release and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech are the next test, with the metal's 14-day RSI at 71.77 in overbought territory.
Treasury Buybacks Revive the Dollar-Debasement Trade
The rally has gathered momentum after the US Treasury said it would at least double buyback operations for long-dated government debt starting in September, with Secretary Scott Bessent indicating the program could exceed $4 billion per issue. The intervention pressured Treasury yields and the dollar, with the US Dollar Index at 98.88, while US government debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time.
Gold has moved above its 200-day moving average near $4,513, a level traders follow as a longer-term trend gauge, with the next technical area around $4,700. ANZ analysts said gold-backed ETFs recorded their largest single-day inflow since September 2025 and have now registered net inflows for five consecutive weeks.
Central Banks and Peers Anchor the $5,000 Path
China has added roughly 60 tons of gold in 2026, its strongest pace since 2023, while Poland increased holdings by 82 tons to about 632 tons, moving toward a 700-ton target. Global central-bank net purchases reached 345 tons in the first half, aligning with a full-year expectation of about 700 tons, according to Morgan Stanley.
The $5,000 call sits below more aggressive forecasts. UBS sees gold reaching $5,200 by June 2027, RBC's bullish scenario puts the metal above $5,300, and J.P. Morgan has pointed to averages near $6,000 by late 2026 and around $6,300 in 2027 under certain scenarios.
COMEX short positioning has declined to levels near the lowest since April 2020, limiting the contribution available from further short covering, Morgan Stanley noted. The bank's economists expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates through the end of 2026, supporting a lower opportunity cost for holding the non-yielding metal.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
