Key Takeaways:
Quantum computing stocks fell as much as 6.4% Tuesday as the 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high, forcing a rotation out of long-duration technology names.
The Wall Street Journal reported that nine top tech companies carry roughly $3 trillion of off-balance-sheet commitments largely tied to AI, about triple what they owe under outstanding leases and long-term borrowings and growing faster than the roughly $600 billion of traditional capex they reported over the past year. The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) fell 1.66% as the report fed broad de-risking in high-multiple growth names.
Near the close, IonQ (NYSE:IONQ) was down about 6% at roughly $44, D-Wave Quantum (NYSE:QBTS) off 6.4% at roughly $20, and Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) down 5% at roughly $18. The 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.68%, near recent highs and up roughly 3% from a month ago, while the 30-year topped 5.3% at one point. Technology was the worst-performing sector, with AI hardware, semiconductors, neoclouds and consumer electronics all lower, while healthcare rose 2% at the sector level and consumer defensive, utilities and energy also gained. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (NASDAQ:IGV) was roughly flat, up 0.04%, a sharp contrast with the pain across hardware-heavy corners of tech.
The declines follow a strong run for the group. IonQ was up about 35% over the past month heading into Tuesday, Rigetti up about 32%, and D-Wave up about 25%, leaving the names vulnerable to profit-taking on a rate-driven day. On a year-to-date basis IonQ is up only about 4%, D-Wave down about 20%, and Rigetti down about 16%.
Quantum computing names are among the purest long-duration assets trading on U.S. exchanges. These are pre-revenue or minimally revenue-generating businesses whose valuations rest almost entirely on cash flows that may not arrive for years, and in some cases a decade or more. When the long end of the curve moves higher, the present value of those distant cash flows falls the hardest, the primary reason behind Tuesday's disproportionate selling in the group.
The rate move landed on top of a shift in the AI narrative. Anthropic told investors over the weekend that its annualized revenue run rate hit $65 billion at the end of July, while OpenAI said its ARR recently reached $40 billion. Both are enormous but below the higher numbers circulating in Silicon Valley. Reuters reported Anthropic is projecting 2028 revenue of $190 billion to $200 billion, likely below more aggressive investor projections. Together with the off-balance-sheet commitments, those data points pushed investors to reprice long-dated AI exposure.
The earnings backdrop is worth remembering. IonQ posted Q2 revenue of about $80 million, up roughly 287% year over year, and raised its FY26 revenue guide to $280 million to $290 million. Rigetti reported revenue of about $5 million, up roughly 185% year over year, and signed a letter of intent with the U.S. Department of Commerce for up to $100 million in CHIPS Act funding. D-Wave's Q2 revenue came in at about $3 million, essentially flat year over year and missing the roughly $4 million estimate, though H1 bookings surged to $35.5 million from $2.9 million a year earlier and remaining performance obligations rose 668% to $40.7 million.
Watch the direction of long-dated Treasury yields in the coming days and any Fed commentary in the weeks ahead. Any relief at the long end of the curve tends to bring the quantum cohort back first, because these names move as a group on rate and risk sentiment. The next scheduled events are Q3 earnings later this year and continued milestone announcements, including IonQ's 256-qubit demo, Rigetti's CHIPS Act funding progress, and D-Wave's gate-model roadmap.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
