US workers are switching jobs at the lowest rate since the post-financial-crisis era, with the "low-hire, low-fire" dynamic leaving 27 percent of unemployed Americans out of work for 27 weeks or more even as August payrolls added 162,000 jobs.
返回
US Job Switching Stalls at Post-Crisis Lows as 27% Unemployed Long-Term
US job switching has stalled at post-financial-crisis lows, even as August payrolls added 162,000 jobs and 27 percent of the unemployed have been jobless for 27 weeks or more.
"It's like a hen laying on its eggs," said Guy Berger, labor economist at Burning Glass Institute. "People feel like there are not great outside options."
The separation rate — which captures both layoffs and voluntary departures — has been stuck near its lowest levels since the years after the 2008-09 financial crisis, with the hiring rate similarly depressed. The country is adding roughly 80,000 jobs a month, a marked improvement from the 10,000 monthly average in 2025 but below the 122,000 monthly pace of 2024. The overall unemployment rate sits at 4.1 percent.
The dynamic matters for the Federal Reserve because a labor market with low churn but rising long-term unemployment points to cooling rather than collapse — a scenario that could keep policymakers on hold even as the share of workers locked out of the market grows.
University of Michigan labor economist Betsey Stevenson likens the market to a crowded restaurant where every table filled up 10 minutes ago. "If you have a job, you want to work to keep it," she said. Workers who once viewed staying at a company as a lack of ambition now see it as the opposite.
Kim Pohas, a 42-year-old technical writer in Irvine, Calif., saw a role she would once have called her dream job posted last month and didn't apply. Recruiters court her on LinkedIn, but she won't gamble her current role — where she loves her boss and has four years of seniority — especially as she watches friends surface in her feed freshly laid off. "I sound like the boomers who are like, 'Stay for 20 years and get the gold watch and the vacation to Hawaii,'" Pohas said. "But maybe they knew what they were talking about."
More than a third of jobs gained this year have come from healthcare, while construction has benefited from the data-center building boom. Manufacturing, which shed jobs last year as tariff concerns weighed, has bounced back.
Long-Term Unemployment Rises to 27% of Jobless
The lack of white-collar mobility falls hardest on the young and on veteran workers seeking senior positions. Nearly 2 million Americans have been locked out of the market for at least half a year. Long-term unemployed — people unsuccessfully seeking work for 27 weeks or more — accounted for 27 percent of unemployed people in August, up from about 21 percent two years earlier. A Gallup poll found only 33 percent of employed and unemployed people seeking work considered it a good time to find a quality job.
Trex Desai, 38, sent out more than 200 applications and spent nine months interviewing before landing at a financial technology company five months ago. "It was absolutely horrible," said Desai, who lives in Brooklyn with his wife and two kids. He has no desire to repeat the experience. "I'm doubling down," he said.
Marieme Barry, 25, a news analyst at a data analytics firm, considers herself among the best-off of her friends, many of whom searched for months and settled for whatever they could find. "There's a lot to be said for staying where you are," Barry said. "All things in due time."
Ruzana Glaeser, a 42-year-old sourcing strategy manager, turned down an opportunity at another company that would have offered roughly double her pay when she learned the person who held it previously left because of burnout. "The grass is green where you water it," she said.
What the Stalled Market Means for the Fed
For the Fed, the question is whether this equilibrium persists. The last time separation rates were this low, in the years after the 2008-09 crisis, the labor market eventually reaccelerated as hiring picked up. But the current pattern differs: hiring has not rebounded alongside the low separation rate, and the rising share of long-term unemployed suggests workers who lose jobs face increasingly difficult re-entry.
If the trend continues, it could reinforce arguments for gradual rate cuts even with unemployment at 4.1 percent. Treasury yields and equity markets have already begun pricing a more cautious Fed path, with rate-cut expectations for the coming quarters reflecting a labor market that is cooling gradually rather than deteriorating sharply. The next monthly payrolls report will offer the first test of whether the August improvement marks a genuine inflection or a temporary reprieve in a market defined by workers staying put.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
