William Blair cut Coinbase Global revenue estimates 12% for 2026 and slashed EBITDA forecasts 34%, yet maintained its Outperform rating on expectations that a Bitcoin recovery will revive trading volumes. Shares of Coinbase and Circle Internet Group rose Wednesday as the firm said key risks are already priced in.
William Blair cut Coinbase Global revenue estimates 12% for 2026 but kept its Outperform rating, betting a Bitcoin recovery will revive trading volumes.
"Bitcoin's movement will determine whether casual retail traders re-enter the market," William Blair analysts wrote in a July 15 note. Those retail traders are the high-margin customers that exchanges like Coinbase depend on for transaction revenue.
The firm also cut 2027 revenue estimates 13% and slashed EBITDA forecasts 34% for both years, citing persistently weak crypto trading volumes. Coinbase posted $1.41 billion in Q1 2026 revenue, missing the $1.52 billion consensus, with transaction revenue falling 40 percent year-over-year. The company reported a loss of $1.49 per share.
The revisions reflect Coinbase's fixed cost structure, where expenses don't shrink proportionally when volumes drop. Shares of Coinbase and Circle Internet Group rose Wednesday, with Circle climbing 4 percent, as William Blair said many key risks are already reflected in investor expectations.
William Blair initially started covering Coinbase with an Outperform rating in June 2025, projecting that EBITDA would bottom out in the second half of 2026 before staging a recovery. Despite the fresh cuts, that thesis remains unchanged.
Circle, the stablecoin issuer trading under the ticker CRCL, faces its own competitive pressures. A consortium of 140 fintech companies, banks and crypto firms recently announced support for Open USD, a new stablecoin that could challenge Circle's USDC. Circle's USDC stablecoin has a $73 billion market cap, ranking second globally. Coinbase earned nearly $1 billion from its USDC revenue-sharing partnership with Circle in 2024, making the exchange's support for Open USD a notable development.
The analyst community remains divided on Coinbase. Baird rates the stock Neutral with a $142 price target, which sits below the current trading price of $161.50. BTIG, at the other end of the spectrum, has a $260 target. The gap of more than $118 per share reflects the uncertainty around trading volume recovery.
Coinbase shares have declined 58 percent over the past year. The 40 percent year-over-year drop in transaction revenue, combined with a fixed cost structure, means the company is particularly sensitive to volume swings in both directions. William Blair is betting that if trading picks up even modestly, profitability could recover faster than the revenue line suggests. Investors will watch Bitcoin's price trajectory in the second half of 2026 as the key catalyst for a potential turnaround.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
