XRP volume jumps 16% as open interest hits $510 million on derivatives surge

XRP rose 3.5% to $1.13 as of 14:00 UTC on July 22, with trading volume jumping 16% and open interest on derivatives climbing to $510 million, according to CoinGecko and Coinglass data. The move came as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the CLARITY Act, which would classify XRP as a digital commodity, is "on the 1-yard line" in the Senate.

"Open interest has rebuilt to $510 million after a mid-June purge wiped out leveraged positions," Xaif Crypto, an independent market analyst, said. "The leverage ratio of 0.163 is neutral relative to the six-month range, but the combination of rising OI and declining spot volume is historically a precursor to volatility."

Spot market flows on exchanges have shrunk from tens of millions to near zero since July 7, data from CryptoQuant shows, suggesting large holders are waiting on the sidelines. Meanwhile, XRP's Network Value to Transactions ratio has climbed, indicating that valuation is increasingly driven by derivatives speculation rather than transactional demand.

The CLARITY Act's passage is far from certain — Republicans need seven Democratic votes to reach the 60-vote threshold in the Senate, and Polymarket prices the bill's 2026 passage at 41%. For XRP, the bill would permanently settle the regulatory uncertainty that has hung over the token since the SEC sued Ripple in 2020, removing the single biggest barrier to institutional adoption.

Derivatives Drive the Action While Spot Sits Out

XRP's open interest on Binance alone accounts for roughly $510 million, up from about $400 million before the mid-June deleveraging event, Coinglass data shows. The leverage ratio of 0.163 sits in neutral territory relative to the token's six-month range, but the directional skew is notable: roughly $2.93 million in leveraged short positions were liquidated on July 21 alone as XRP pushed higher.

The divergence between derivatives and spot markets is stark. Exchange inflows and outflows for XRP have dropped to near-zero levels since July 7, per CryptoQuant, a pattern that typically precedes a sharp move when momentum returns. The climbing NVT ratio reinforces the picture — network transaction volumes have weakened even as market capitalization holds steady, a sign that price action is being driven by speculative positioning rather than organic demand.

Technical Setup Points to a Breakout or Breakdown

XRP is trading within a tightening symmetrical triangle pattern, with resistance concentrated between $1.12 and $1.145 and support rising from the $0.90 to $0.87 zone, according to technical analyst Diana. The Relative Strength Index has moved into more positive territory, and XRP has broken a 66-day downtrend while reclaiming critical resistance levels.

A breakout above $1.145 opens the door to the $1.20 to $1.30 range, while a rejection could send prices back to the $0.90 to $0.87 demand zone. The formation of higher lows and a potential triple-bottom pattern are adding to the bullish case, though the derivatives-heavy positioning means any move could be amplified by liquidations in either direction.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.