Goldman Sachs lifts ASMPT target to HKD206 on AI packaging demand

Goldman Sachs raised ASMPT's price target 74% to HKD206, citing surging demand for AI advanced packaging equipment.

"Rising end-demand for AI infrastructure will drive shipments of ASMPT's thermocompression bonding equipment and PCB SMT tools," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a research report, forecasting a 36% net profit compound annual growth rate from 2026 to 2028.

The broker raised its 2027 and 2028 earnings-per-share forecasts by 16% and 22% to HKD5.75 and HKD6.89, respectively. Goldman also increased its AI server chip shipment projections for 2026, 2027 and 2028 by 14%, 22% and 14%. The new target price of HKD206 implies about 11% upside from the stock's last closing level.

The upgrade comes as TSMC, the world's largest manufacturer of advanced AI chips, prepares to report what analysts expect will be a fifth straight quarter of record profit, with net income surging 59% to T$632.6 billion. TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging capacity remains fully booked through 2026, with lead times stretching 52 to 78 weeks, according to the company's chief executive.

Goldman maintained a Neutral rating on ASMPT, saying positive factors have largely been reflected in the share price. The stock fell 3.9% on Monday, with short selling accounting for 10% of turnover.

The broker noted that TSMC's higher CoWoS and capital expenditure guidance, together with ASMPT's announcement of repeat orders for eight chip-to-wafer application TCB tools from a global leading integrated device manufacturer, reinforced its positive view on the company's growth prospects.

TSMC is investing $165 billion to build chip factories in Arizona and has indicated 2026 capital expenditure will be at the high end of its $52 billion to $56 billion guidance. Some analysts expect the company could raise spending to about $58 billion, citing tight equipment supply and aggressive capacity expansion by memory makers including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

ASMPT's thermocompression bonding equipment is critical for advanced chip packaging, a bottleneck in the AI supply chain. Nvidia currently commands about 60% of TSMC's CoWoS output, or roughly 595,000 wafers, with the top three clients accounting for more than 85% of total production.

The guidance raise signals Goldman expects AI infrastructure spending to sustain its rapid growth. Investors will watch TSMC's earnings call on Thursday for updated capital expenditure plans and any further indication of packaging capacity expansion.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.