C3.ai and BigBear.ai revenue trends show 2 diverging AI paths

C3.ai's revenue has fallen 53% from its peak while BigBear.ai's has stabilized, revealing two distinct trajectories in enterprise AI.

C3.ai's quarterly revenue has dropped 53% from a $108.7 million peak to $51.6 million, while BigBear.ai's has held near $34 million — a divergence that shows how differently government exposure and leadership stability play out in enterprise AI.

"BigBear.ai took the hit from federal budget cuts in 2025, but the first quarter of 2026 suggests the bleeding has stopped," Alex Nguyen, enterprise AI analyst at Edgen, said. "C3.ai's decline is a different story — it's tied to a leadership vacuum that may now be filling."

C3.ai's revenue climbed steadily from $87.2 million in Q3 2024 to a high of $108.7 million in Q2 2025, then collapsed to $70.3 million in Q3 2025 after Chief Executive Officer Tom Siebel stepped down for health reasons. The company reported $51.6 million in Q2 2026, the lowest in the series. Siebel has since returned, and the fiscal fourth-quarter results beat estimates — an adjusted loss of 33 cents per share versus the 37-cent consensus, with revenue of $52 million topping the $50 million forecast. BigBear.ai followed a different path: revenue fell from $158.2 million in 2024 to $127.7 million in 2025, driven by Trump Administration budget cuts. But Q1 2026 revenue of $34.4 million was only 1% below the prior year, and the company guided full-year 2026 revenue between $135 million and $165 million.

Both companies remain deeply unprofitable. C3.ai posted a net income margin of negative 224% for the quarter ended April 30, while BigBear.ai reported an EBIT margin of negative 67% for the quarter ended March 31. For investors, the question is whether Siebel's return can restore C3.ai's growth trajectory — the company's revenue doubled between Q3 2024 and Q2 2025 under his leadership — or whether BigBear.ai's stabilization, backed by new international contracts like its Netherlands airport security approval, makes it the safer bet in a sector where revenue visibility is scarce.

Two Companies, Two Revenue Stories

The divergence stems from fundamentally different business models. C3.ai sells enterprise AI software to large corporations and the U.S. government, with a subscription-based model that generated consistent growth until Siebel's departure. BigBear.ai provides AI-powered consulting and data analysis services, making it more vulnerable to federal spending shifts but also more adaptable when budgets tighten. The Trump Administration's 2025 budget cuts hit BigBear.ai's top line directly, but the company's 2026 guidance implies a recovery. C3.ai's expanded collaboration with Shell shows it still wins large enterprise deals, but the revenue figures suggest execution suffered during the leadership transition.

What the Numbers Mean for Investors

C3.ai trades on the bet that Siebel can rebuild momentum. The company's revenue run rate of roughly $200 million annualized is less than half its peak pace. BigBear.ai, at a projected $135 million to $165 million for 2026, offers more predictability but slower growth. Both face the same structural challenge: proving that enterprise AI can generate sustainable, profitable revenue rather than depending on government contracts and pilot programs. BigBear.ai's securities fraud investigation adds legal overhang, while C3.ai's negative 224% net margin leaves no room for error.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.