Gaza Disarmament Road Map Faces Uphill Climb as Israel Holds 70%

The Board of Peace's Gaza road map, published Friday, offers Hamas better terms than the 2025 Trump peace plan, keeping weapons stored under Palestinian control while Israel withdraws to 53 percent of the strip.

"We will not take any action regarding disarmament prior to Israel's withdrawal from the Strip," Ghazi Hamad, a senior Hamas official, told Al Jazeera.

The 15-point framework, released after eight months of stalled negotiations, calls for Hamas to hand governance to a technocratic Palestinian committee, decommission heavy weapons and reveal tunnel locations in exchange for full amnesty. Israel currently controls 70 percent of Gaza, up from the 53 percent demarcated by the Yellow Line in the October ceasefire. U.S. and Board of Peace officials estimate full decommissioning could take 200 to 350 days, with roughly 5,000 soldiers from 13 countries — including Egypt, Morocco and Indonesia — and 20,000 police officers deployed to oversee the process.

The road map's viability hinges on Israel's public acceptance, which has not come. A senior U.S. official said Trump would be "very, very disappointed" if Israel rejected the deal, while Israeli officials have privately signaled the terms do not align with their interests. With reconstruction costs estimated at $70 billion and more than 70,000 Palestinians killed since October 2023, the stakes extend beyond Gaza to regional stability and global energy flows.

One Authority, One Law, One Weapon

The framework's core principle — "One Authority, One Law, One Weapon" — would consolidate all security functions under the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), a transitional body supervised by the Board of Peace. Hamas and other factions would hand over civilian governance and security functions, with all police weapons transferred to NCAG authority upon its entry into the strip. The NCAG would operate under a three-year implementation timeline, with the International Verification Committee certifying each phase before progression.

But the plan specifies that "no weapons shall be transferred or handed to Israel or to any non-Palestinian party." Instead, heavy weapons, military production sites and tunnels would be decommissioned and stored under NCAG authority, linked to a phased Israeli withdrawal. Personal weapons would remain subject to Palestinian law, with NCAG as the sole authority to register and license firearms. Saudi Arabia, a founding member of the Board of Peace, praised the framework in a statement Friday, saying it should enable "peaceful coexistence between the State of Palestine and Israel on the basis of mutual recognition."

The WSJ editorial board noted the road map "would keep Gaza militarized with a new Palestinian force and leave Hamas's weapons within reach, in storage under Palestinian control." The last time a similar disarmament framework was attempted, in the 2025 peace plan, Hamas refused to comply for 10 months, causing donor states to renege on reconstruction funding. Former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair, who sits on the Board of Peace's executive panel, helped negotiate the deal.

Energy Risk Rises as Houthis Target Tankers

The Gaza negotiations unfold against a backdrop of escalating regional conflict. The Houthis hit two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea as Trump surged military forces to the Middle East after nearly two weeks of nightly bombing. When the April ceasefire in the Iran war unraveled last month, benchmark Brent crude futures jumped 24 percent, and analysts polled by Reuters expect prices to rise further this year. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global oil consumption passes, remains a flashpoint.

Israeli strikes continued in Gaza even after Trump announced the deal Thursday, killing at least nine Palestinians on Sunday, according to Palestinian health officials. Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen said there was no deal to halt attacks on Gaza and that Israel, which already controls 70 percent of the strip, should take full control. Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir called the plan "not acceptable" to Israel.

The road map's phased approach — with the International Verification Committee certifying each stage before progression — means any single breakdown could derail the entire process. "If Phase 1 gets blocked, then we don't move to Phase 2," one U.S. official said. "It is based on phases and each phase needs to be verified and confirmed."

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.