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Elena Fischer
Geopolitics & Trade Reporter

Trade policy, sanctions, and geopolitical risk. Based in London. Previously covered EU economic policy for Politico Europe.

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President Donald Trump signals a potential end to the conflict with Iran within weeks, a move that could significantly lower geopolitical risk and impact global markets.

Trump Signals End to Iran War Within 3 Weeks, Easing Market Fears

President Donald Trump signals a potential end to the conflict with Iran within weeks, a move that could significantly lower geopolitical risk and impact global markets.

The U.S. Department of Defense is doubling its A-10 attack aircraft in the Middle East, a move that heightens geopolitical risk and threatens to disrupt global crude oil supply.

US Doubles A-10 Deployment to 30 Jets in Middle East, Spiking Oil Fears

The U.S. Department of Defense is doubling its A-10 attack aircraft in the Middle East, a move that heightens geopolitical risk and threatens to disrupt global crude oil supply.

Iran's Ministry of Education claims that 237 of its students have been killed in recent attacks it attributes to the United States and Israel.

Iran says 237 students killed in US-Israeli attacks

Iran's Ministry of Education claims that 237 of its students have been killed in recent attacks it attributes to the United States and Israel.

A large-scale military exchange between Iran and Israel on April 1st ran parallel to reports of US-brokered ceasefire talks, creating significant geopolitical and market uncertainty.

Iran-Israel Conflict Sees Fierce Strikes on Day 33 as US Floats Ceasefire

A large-scale military exchange between Iran and Israel on April 1st ran parallel to reports of US-brokered ceasefire talks, creating significant geopolitical and market uncertainty.

US President Trump issued a threat to stop providing weapons to Ukraine on the condition that European nations do not join the Strait of Hormuz coalition.

US threatens to cut Ukraine aid over 1 Hormuz coalition demand

US President Trump issued a threat to stop providing weapons to Ukraine on the condition that European nations do not join the Strait of Hormuz coalition.

An impending open letter from Iranian President Pezeshkian to the American people has injected fresh uncertainty into global markets, causing a spike in oil prices amid geopolitical tensions.

Iran Letter to US Heightens Oil Market Jitters by 1%

An impending open letter from Iranian President Pezeshkian to the American people has injected fresh uncertainty into global markets, causing a spike in oil prices amid geopolitical tensions.

Remarks by Donald Trump on April 1, 2026, spurred a risk-on mood in markets, causing the British Pound to strengthen significantly against the US Dollar, breaking the 1.3300 barrier.

GBP/USD surges past 1.3300 after Trump's remarks

Remarks by Donald Trump on April 1, 2026, spurred a risk-on mood in markets, causing the British Pound to strengthen significantly against the US Dollar, breaking the 1.3300 barrier.

On April 1, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated that since the commencement of US-Israeli military strikes, over 600 schools and educational centers in Iran have been deliberately attacked.

Iran Says Over 600 Schools Attacked, Threatens US Campuses

On April 1, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated that since the commencement of US-Israeli military strikes, over 600 schools and educational centers in Iran have been deliberately attacked.

According to an Axios report citing two sources, Donald Trump had a phone call on Wednesday with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to discuss potential ceasefire negotiations with Iran.

Trump, Saudi Prince Discuss Iran Ceasefire That Could Cool Oil Prices

According to an Axios report citing two sources, Donald Trump had a phone call on Wednesday with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to discuss potential ceasefire negotiations with Iran.

On April 1, 2026, the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Kentucky ruled in favor of Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN), declaring that the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority’s (HISA) purse-weighted fee methodology and associated fee collection efforts are unlawful.

Churchill Downs wins court ruling, blocking HISA's fee structure in a 2026 decision

On April 1, 2026, the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Kentucky ruled in favor of Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN), declaring that the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority’s (HISA) purse-weighted fee methodology and associated fee collection efforts are unlawful.

US President Trump has reportedly offered Iran a ceasefire if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, conveying the message through Vice President Vance.

US Offers Iran Ceasefire for Hormuz Reopening in Message via Vance

US President Trump has reportedly offered Iran a ceasefire if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, conveying the message through Vice President Vance.

On April 1, 2026, U.S. officials reported that discussions are underway with Iran for a potential deal to exchange a ceasefire for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a possibility also being explored by U.S. President Trump.

US and Iran Discuss Ceasefire for Strait of Hormuz Reopening, Officials Say

On April 1, 2026, U.S. officials reported that discussions are underway with Iran for a potential deal to exchange a ceasefire for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a possibility also being explored by U.S. President Trump.

The Supreme Court is hearing arguments on the legality of President Trump's executive order aiming to end birthright citizenship for children of non-citizens and temporary residents.

Supreme Court Weighs 1 Amendment in Trump's Birthright-Citizenship Test

The Supreme Court is hearing arguments on the legality of President Trump's executive order aiming to end birthright citizenship for children of non-citizens and temporary residents.

Coordinated US-Israeli military strikes on Iran trigger a sharp spike in global crude oil prices and a flight to safe-haven assets, with France announcing it will not participate in the conflict.

Crude oil prices jump 5% after US and Israel launch strikes on Iran

Coordinated US-Israeli military strikes on Iran trigger a sharp spike in global crude oil prices and a flight to safe-haven assets, with France announcing it will not participate in the conflict.

U.S. manufacturing grew in March at the fastest pace in two and a half years, but a concurrent conflict with Iran introduced new economic uncertainty, threatening to derail progress.

US Manufacturing Hits 2.5-Year High as Iran Conflict Looms

U.S. manufacturing grew in March at the fastest pace in two and a half years, but a concurrent conflict with Iran introduced new economic uncertainty, threatening to derail progress.

On April 1, 2026, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated the Strait of Hormuz would not be open to its 'enemies', in response to a social media post by US President Trump who claimed he would only 'consider' an alleged Iranian ceasefire request if the strait were opened.

Iran Vows to Close Hormuz Strait to 'Enemies' After Trump's Ceasefire Post

On April 1, 2026, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated the Strait of Hormuz would not be open to its 'enemies', in response to a social media post by US President Trump who claimed he would only 'consider' an alleged Iranian ceasefire request if the strait were opened.

Explosions were reported in Iran's capital, Tehran, on April 1, sparking concerns about potential oil supply disruptions and increased geopolitical tension in the Middle East.

Iran explosions on April 1 spark oil supply fears

Explosions were reported in Iran's capital, Tehran, on April 1, sparking concerns about potential oil supply disruptions and increased geopolitical tension in the Middle East.

Iran's military launched a retaliatory drone strike on April 1, 2026, targeting US military assets in Israel and the UAE, causing a spike in oil prices and raising fears of a broader Middle East conflict.

Iran drone strike on US assets risks wider conflict and new oil shock

Iran's military launched a retaliatory drone strike on April 1, 2026, targeting US military assets in Israel and the UAE, causing a spike in oil prices and raising fears of a broader Middle East conflict.

On April 1, 2026, stock and oil markets show divergent sentiment in response to ongoing geopolitical war risks involving Iran.

Markets diverge as oil prices add 1% on Iran war risks

On April 1, 2026, stock and oil markets show divergent sentiment in response to ongoing geopolitical war risks involving Iran.

Reports of Donald Trump considering a US withdrawal from NATO drove a 4.2% rally in European aerospace and defense stocks as investors priced in higher defense spending from member nations.

European defense stocks surge 4.2% after Trump's NATO comments

Reports of Donald Trump considering a US withdrawal from NATO drove a 4.2% rally in European aerospace and defense stocks as investors priced in higher defense spending from member nations.

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