Elena Fischer
Geopolitics & Trade Reporter

Trade policy, sanctions, and geopolitical risk. Based in London. Previously covered EU economic policy for Politico Europe.

Latest

The UK government is expected to announce the postponement of a fuel tax increase that was scheduled for September 2026, according to a report from The Sun.

UK to delay fuel tax hike ahead of May 21 inflation data

**Key Takeaways:** * The UK government plans to postpone a fuel duty increase scheduled for September, according to reports. * The move comes amid rising borrowing costs, political uncertainty, and fears of persistent inflation. * While providing relief for consumers, the delay complicates the UK's fiscal outlook ahead of key inflation data on May 21.

The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing a rapid depletion of global oil inventories, with projections showing they could reach all-time lows by the end of May 2026.

Global Oil Inventories Face Record Lows by End of May

**Key Takeaways:** * Global oil stockpiles are falling at a record rate and could approach all-time lows by the end of May due to the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to UBS. * The supply disruption has forced countries like India to raise fuel prices and introduce austerity measures, while shortages of materials like aluminum are impacting global supply chains. | Metric | Pre-Conflict | Current (April) | Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Iraq Hormuz Exports | ~93M barrels/month | 10M barrels | -89.2% | | WTI Crude | - | $79.50/barrel | +1.4% (weekly) | | Brent Crude | - | $83.80/barrel | +1.2% (weekly) |

As of May 16, 2026, nearly three months into the Iran war, American consumer spending remains strong, supporting the U.S. economy despite high gas prices and inflation.

US Consumer Defies Record Gloom, Spending Over 8% More as Iran War Roils Global Markets

**American consumers have never felt worse, yet they continue to spend, creating a tense standoff between sentiment and reality that now underpins the global economy.**

In a May 15, 2026 report, Goldman Sachs warned that markets are underpricing the dual risks of a potential re-escalation of the Iran conflict threatening the Strait of Hormuz and a 'hawkish storm' of rising interest rates, despite a recent market rally.

Goldman Sachs Warns of 2 Risks That Could Derail Market Rally

**A recent market rebound has dangerously underpriced the dual threats of a renewed Middle East energy crisis and a "hawkish storm" of rising interest rates, according to a May 15 Goldman Sachs report.**

US President Donald Trump stated that Iran 'has no cards to play' amid ongoing tensions and stalled negotiations over its nuclear program.

Trump Says Iran Has 0 Cards to Play in Nuclear Talks

**President Donald Trump issued a blunt assessment of Iran’s negotiating position amid stalled nuclear talks, stating the country has “zero cards to play.”**

Following a summit between President Trump and President Xi, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated that Section 301 tariffs on China will continue, and that he expects China to commit to purchasing billions in US agricultural products.

US to keep Section 301 tariffs on China after 2-day summit

**Key Takeaways:** * US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has confirmed that Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods will continue following a presidential summit in Beijing. * The decision solidifies the administration's reliance on Section 301 after US courts struck down tariffs based on other laws, including the IEEPA. * While the US expects billions in agricultural purchases from China, industries exposed to Chinese supply chains face continued cost pressure and uncertainty.

Letters to the Wall Street Journal reflect on how Ted Turner's CNN reshaped global politics and media during the first Gulf War, influencing leaders from George H.W. Bush to Saddam Hussein.

How 1 Man's Vision for CNN Changed Modern Warfare

**More than 30 years ago, one 24-hour news network transformed how world leaders experienced and conducted war.**

A judge declared a mistrial in Harvey Weinstein's third New York trial on a rape charge after the jury deadlocked for a second time on the same count.

Harvey Weinstein's 3rd trial on rape charge ends in mistrial

**For the second time in as many years, a jury could not unanimously decide if Harvey Weinstein raped actress Jessica Mann in 2013.**

The Trump administration is preparing to impose significant water cuts on seven Western states due to the Colorado River's critically low levels, a crisis driven by prolonged drought and a failure of state-level agreements.

7 States Face 40% Water Cut in US-Mandated Colorado River Plan

**The Trump administration has intervened in the West’s escalating water war, proposing drastic cuts that could idle farms and darken cities across seven states.**

Caterpillar Inc. projects a $2.2 to $2.4 billion negative impact from tariffs in 2026, leading to rising costs and significant margin pressure for the industrial bellwether.

Caterpillar sees $2.4 billion tariff hit pressuring 2026 margins

**Key Takeaways** * Caterpillar's first-quarter adjusted operating margin fell to 18 percent as tariffs elevated manufacturing costs. * The company expects a $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion tariff impact in 2026, pushing operating margins toward the low end of its annual target. * Peers Terex and Komatsu also reported weaker margins, signaling broad cost pressures across the industrial sector from tariffs. * Despite the cost headwinds, Caterpillar shares have gained 163.1 percent over the past year, significantly outperforming the industry.

The prospect of a leadership challenge to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer from the left-leaning Andy Burnham has sparked a selloff in UK assets, with investors fearing a shift away from fiscal discipline.

UK political turmoil sends 10-year gilt yield past 5.1%

**A potential challenge to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer from populist mayor Andy Burnham is sending shockwaves through UK financial markets.**

A Russian court has ordered the central securities depository EuroClear to pay 200 billion euros in a legal dispute over frozen Russian assets.

Russian court orders EuroClear to pay 200 billion euros over frozen assets

**Key Takeaways:** * A Russian court ordered EuroClear to pay €200 billion in a case brought by the Russian Central Bank over frozen assets. * The dispute centers on Russian funds immobilized by the depository following Western sanctions imposed in 2022. * The ruling escalates the economic conflict between Russia and the West, creating significant legal and financial uncertainty for a systemic institution. * This follows a separate TASS report of a $229 billion lawsuit filed by Russia against EuroClear, with a court date in December 2025.

A report on May 15, 2026, showed that U.S. factory production accelerated in April, thanks to a significant increase in motor vehicle manufacturing.

US Manufacturing Surged in April 2026 on Strong Auto Output

**A surge in U.S. auto manufacturing painted a picture of economic resilience in April, but geopolitical tensions cast a long shadow over the outlook.**

Asian stock markets fell, with South Korea's Kospi declining 3.6%, as a summit between U.S. President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping concluded with limited concrete agreements on trade and technology.

Asian Stocks Drop up to 3.6% as US-China Summit Lacks Deals

**Key Takeaways:** * Asian stocks fell, with South Korea's Kospi down 3.6%, after the Trump-Xi summit ended without major deals. * Crude oil prices rose after the White House noted China's interest in purchasing more U.S. oil. * Unresolved issues on tariffs and technology, including Nvidia chip exports, continue to create market uncertainty.

On May 15, Chinese President Xi Jinping held a small-scale meeting with US President Donald Trump at Zhongnanhai to discuss geopolitical and economic issues.

Trump and Xi hold 2nd day of talks amid Iran and Taiwan tensions

* U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a second day of talks on May 15 in Beijing to stabilize relations. * Discussions focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20 percent of global oil, and managing tensions over Taiwan. * While no major deals were announced, the leaders discussed potential Chinese purchases of U.S. goods and agreed to future talks.

A new report reveals China's 'industrial policy of everything' aims to dominate global markets across 24 sectors, from textiles to brain-computer interfaces.

China's industrial policy targets 24 sectors for global dominance

**A new report details how China’s all-encompassing industrial policy is systematically targeting global market share across dozens of industries.** **Key Takeaways:** * A Rhodium Group report for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce outlines China's "industrial policy of everything," targeting 24 priority sectors. * China now controls over 50 percent of export volumes in 315 industries, a sharp increase from 163 industries in 2016. * The policy strategically targets "chokepoint" products like rare earths to create leverage and reduce China's own import vulnerabilities.

A letter to the editor in the Wall Street Journal on May 15, 2026, reports that Ukrainian defense company Fire Point is delivering 220 drones daily and is projected to reach 400 per day by the end of 2026.

Ukraine's Fire Point Ramps Drone Output to 400 a Day in Strategic Shift

**Key Takeaways:** * Ukrainian defense firm Fire Point is producing 220 long-range drones per day, with plans to reach 400 by the end of 2026, signaling a major scale-up of domestic military production. * New tactics have emerged, including using rocket-armed drones for Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD) and imposing "drone sieges" to interdict Russian supply lines around key hubs like Mariupol. * The strategy aims to create "independence in security," reducing reliance on Western aid and developing a domestic defense ecosystem that integrates drones, missiles, and satellite technology.

The European Systemic Risk Board's advisory committee is contemplating an inquiry into the European Union's private credit market due to concerns about potential systemic risks stemming from its substantial interconnections with insurers, pension funds, and banks.

Europe Eyes Private Credit Inquiry as Systemic Risk Concerns Mount

**Key Takeaways** * Europe’s systemic risk overseer is considering a formal inquiry into the private credit market, citing concerns over financial stability. * The sector’s deep links with banks, insurers, and pension funds are a key focus, even as direct leverage in the funds appears low. * An inquiry could lead to tighter regulation for major players like Ares, Blackstone, and KKR, potentially slowing the industry’s rapid growth in the EU.

A delegation of 14 top US executives, including the CEOs of Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla, accompanied Donald Trump on a high-stakes visit to China for talks with President Xi Jinping.

Trump leads 14 US CEOs to China summit as Xi warns of 'Thucydides Trap'

**A high-stakes presidential summit in Beijing, accompanied by 14 of America’s top CEOs, seeks to navigate the precarious US-China relationship as President Xi Jinping explicitly warns of a potential fall into the “Thucydides Trap.”**

CIA Director John Ratcliffe met with Cuban officials in Havana, delivering a stark warning that the U.S. is prepared to engage on economic and security issues only if Cuba makes fundamental changes, as the island nation grapples with a severe energy crisis.

US-Cuba Tensions in Focus as CIA Chief Makes Rare Havana Visit

**A rare high-level meeting between U.S. and Cuban officials in Havana signals a critical juncture in relations as the island nation faces a crippling energy crisis and mounting internal pressure.**

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