Key Takeaways:
- Gold broke below $4,500 to $4,472, with the next target at $4,436
- Silver fell to $74.80 after rejection at the 50-period MA near $75.80
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Gold breaks below $4,500 to $4,472 as ceasefire curbs demand
Gold fell to $4,472 per ounce, breaking below the $4,500 support level, as the US-Iran ceasefire reduced safe-haven demand for precious metals.
"The breakdown below $4,500 confirms sellers retain control, with the next downside target at $4,436," Arslan, a finance MBA and behavioral finance analyst at FX Empire, said.
The 2-hour chart shows bearish momentum with the relative strength index below 45 and consecutive red candles forming lower lows. Volume profile data indicates the $4,500 to $4,526 zone has become an area of failed fair value, with selling pressure concentrated near the 50-period moving average at $4,526. Gold is now trading inside an extended descending channel after recent tops near $4,595, with the white descending trendline capping rallies.
Silver followed a similar technical breakdown, trading at $74.80 after rejection at the 50-period moving average near $75.80. The RSI sits around 46, with volume profile data showing $75.50 has become a supply area. The next downside target sits at $74.10, with further support at $73.20.
The US-Iran ceasefire, combined with April's hotter-than-expected CPI data that reduced expectations for rate cuts by Chair Kevin Warsh, has boosted the dollar and real yields, limiting upside for non-yielding gold. The People's Bank of China has bought gold for more than 17 consecutive months, and central bank diversification continues to provide a floor for prices despite the fading geopolitical risk premium.
Silver's industrial demand component remains a key differentiator. The metal is balancing a moderation of safe-haven flows against a persistent supply deficit, with strong demand from the solar, electric vehicle, electronics and artificial intelligence sectors supporting industrial use.
The next catalyst for precious metals will be Friday's US employment data, which will provide further insight into the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. A stronger-than-expected jobs report could reinforce the higher-for-longer rate narrative, adding further pressure on gold and silver.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Truce Stability vs Channel Breakdown — Gold Falls to $4,472, Silver at $74.80?[2] Gold Regains Bullish Momentum Amid Middle East Uncertainty and Easing Yields[3] Gold Holds $4,500 as Descending Triangle, Higher Yields and Dollar Raise Downside Risk - VT Markets[4] Gold Stocks Are in a Bear Market. The Case For Buying. - Barron's
