Gold faces critical test near $4,750 as NFP and ISM data loom

COMEX gold futures settled at $4,561 per troy ounce on May 29, up 1.59% on the day, as the market enters a pivotal week shaped by US labor market and manufacturing data that will test the durability of the metal's recovery from a 19% correction.

"Gold remains negatively correlated to oil, which impacts inflation and monetary policies," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. "Lower oil prices reduces the probability of rate hikes, which is positive for gold."

The precious metal has traded in a $4,453 to $4,773 range through May after recovering from a mid-March trough near $4,098. A fresh US-Iran confrontation on May 28 pushed spot prices to $4,380 before the April PCE reading of 3.8%, which matched expectations, triggered a $71.50 rally in GC1! futures. The Ichimoku Cloud zone between $4,750 and $4,770 now represents the critical resistance level that bulls must reclaim to signal a return to the prior uptrend regime.

The week ahead brings the ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP employment data, ISM Services PMI, and Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report — a sequence that will shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Cooling data could strengthen the case for rate cuts and support gold, while resilient readings may reinforce the higher-for-longer rate narrative that has capped upside since the metal's January record of $5,595.

$4,750 Resistance and the Structural Floor

Gold's daily chart shows price trading below both its 20-day moving average of approximately $4,620 and its 50-day moving average of approximately $4,750, yet comfortably above the long-term uptrend support rising from roughly $3,250 — a level that held even during the March lows. The Tenkan-sen-Kijun-sen death cross in late January confirmed the regime shift from the bull run that produced 53 all-time highs in 2025.

Central banks purchased a record 1,237 tonnes in 2025, the third consecutive year above 1,000 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council. The WGC projects 2026 purchases of 750 to 850 tonnes, with China, India, Turkey, Poland, and Singapore as key buyers. North American ETFs recorded $12.7 billion in outflows in March, the largest monthly redemptions in at least five years, before posting net inflows of $0.83 billion in April.

Two Paths Into June

If economic data signals slowing US momentum — weaker PMI readings, soft ADP employment, and disappointing NFP figures — market expectations for Fed easing could strengthen, pressuring the dollar and driving gold toward the $4,600 to $4,700 zone. A daily close above the Ichimoku Cloud at $4,750 to $4,770 would mark the first technical signal of a medium-term recovery.

If data surprises to the upside, recession fears ease, and the dollar regains strength, gold may face renewed selling pressure near overhead resistance. Failure to hold $4,441 could invite a deeper correction toward $4,159, though both levels remain well above the long-term trend support that has defined the multi-year bull cycle.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.