Gold holds near $4,100 support as sellers fail to secure weekly close

Gold held near $4,100 an ounce after a second consecutive weekly close below the 50-week moving average, with sellers failing to push through the yearly support zone despite probing to $4,122 during the session.

"The 50-week moving average at $4,261 now serves as dynamic resistance after gold closed below it for a second straight week," according to TradingView chart data. The weekly candle formed an inverted hammer pattern, reflecting a failed attempt to rally to $4,382 before sellers drove prices back toward the week's lows.

The weekly close at $4,161 marked the lowest closing price of the current bearish correction. The 20-day moving average, currently at $4,356 and declining, was confirmed as resistance after the $4,382 high was rejected. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior short-term advance sits at $4,102, with the 200-day moving average at $4,468 representing the next major upside target. Gold at current levels trades roughly 6% below its 200-day moving average, compared with a 12% discount at the 2024 correction low near $1,985. The current 6.5% decline from the 2026 high of $4,382 falls within the 8% to 12% average correction range seen during gold's prior bull-market phases since 2023.

$4,000 Uptrend Line Marks the Last Defense

Below the current support zone, the 2026 trend low of $4,023 comes into focus. A break beneath that level would expose the long-term uptrend line converging near $4,000, a zone that has underpinned gold's multi-year advance. A failure there would signal the correction has further room to extend, while a successful defense could establish a higher swing low and create the potential for a double-bottom pattern targeting a rally above $4,382.

The $4,000 level also represents a round-number psychological threshold that has historically attracted buying interest in precious metals. Gold's 14-week relative strength index remains in oversold territory, a condition that preceded the past three major bottoms in 2024, 2023 and 2022. The selloff has been driven by a strengthening US dollar and rising expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening, which have weighed on gold despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The next directional signal will depend on whether buyers can reclaim the 50-week moving average in the sessions ahead, with the weekly close on Friday providing the first confirmation of a potential trend shift.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.