Key Takeaways:
A fragile ceasefire in the Middle East has sent oil futures tumbling, but a new report from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warns that Brent crude prices could average more than $100 per barrel for the year if the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is delayed by just one more month.
"The situation remains highly uncertain," Goldman analysts including Daan Struyven said in a note published April 9. The report highlights that while a two-week ceasefire has cooled headline prices, the risks to oil markets remain skewed to the upside until the 13 million barrels per day of disrupted tanker traffic fully resumes.
Following President Trump's announcement of a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran, the Brent June futures contract fell 13.6% to settle at $94.43 a barrel. However, the price for actual Brent cargos for immediate delivery was $124.68 on Wednesday, a nearly $30 premium that reflects the severe ongoing tightness in the physical market, according to S&P Global data.
"It's a complete mess," Amrita Sen, founder of Energy Aspects, told CNBC. Analysts estimate it could take until June or longer to redirect tankers and restore the flow of oil and liquefied natural gas through the critical chokepoint, which normally handles 20% of global consumption.
Goldman’s report outlines three distinct paths for oil prices, hinging on the status of the strait. The bank's base case assumes energy flows begin to normalize this weekend, allowing Persian Gulf exports to return to pre-war levels within a month. This would see Brent crude averaging $82 per barrel in the third quarter.
In a more adverse scenario where the reopening is pushed back by a month, Goldman forecasts Brent’s average will exceed $100 per barrel for the second half of the year. An extreme case, involving a prolonged blockade and damage to production infrastructure, could send Brent to an average of $120 in the third quarter, a level it briefly touched during the crisis peak.
The sharp divergence between the futures market and the spot price highlights the logistical challenges facing the energy sector. While the ceasefire agreement paused active conflict, it did not instantly restore the complex shipping schedules and supply chains that have been paralyzed for over five weeks.
Before the ceasefire, Brent crude for June delivery was trading above $110 a barrel. The current futures price near $97 reflects cautious optimism but remains squarely between Goldman's base and downside scenarios. The physical market, however, is pricing in the reality that it will take months to unwind the disruption, keeping immediate supply scarce and expensive.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
