Greer to announce Section 122 tariff plan as 10% duties expire

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will outline the administration's next tariff strategy Thursday as the 10% blanket duties imposed after the Supreme Court struck down Liberation Day levies are set to expire.

Greer scheduled a press announcement for Thursday as the 10% global tariffs imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act expire, forcing the White House to replace the levy that has served as its primary trade weapon since February.

"The expiration creates a deadline the administration must address, and the question is whether they shift to Section 301 or pursue an entirely new legal basis," said William Reinsch, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The 10% across-the-board tariff took effect in February after the Supreme Court ruled the administration's reciprocal tariffs unlawful, with a 150-day window set to close Friday. The White House has been preparing Section 301 investigations into trading partners including South Korea, which received notice of a pending 12.5% tariff tied to a forced-labor probe. Canada faces a separate escalation under Section 338 of the Smoot-Hawley Act — a 50% levy on goods ranging from hockey sticks to cement — after the White House said Ottawa failed to address long-standing trade irritants.

The shift in legal authority carries significant economic stakes. The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated the original Liberation Day tariffs cost American households more than $1,700 each, according to a February 2026 fact sheet cited by Senator Elizabeth Warren in a hearing this week. With the 10% surcharge expiring, the administration must either secure a new legal foundation or risk losing the primary tariff mechanism that has reshaped U.S. trade flows over the past 18 months.

Section 301 Takes Center Stage

The administration has signaled it will lean on Section 301 of the Trade Act, which allows the U.S. Trade Representative to retaliate against foreign trade practices deemed unfair. The forced-labor investigation into South Korea has been completed, and Seoul was notified of a 12.5% tariff, though South Korean Trade Minister Kim Jung-kwan has insisted the 15% ceiling agreed in the bilateral trade deal must be respected. Kim, visiting Washington this week, said the first investment project under a $200 billion commitment is in final negotiations, with an announcement possible by late August or September.

The shift to Section 301 mirrors the playbook used against China during the first Trump administration, when tariffs on more than $300 billion in Chinese goods were imposed under the same authority. That escalation reduced bilateral trade by roughly 15% over 12 months, according to Census Bureau data.

Canada and the Smoot-Hawley Precedent

The 50% tariff on Canadian goods under Section 338 — a law from 1930 not used in decades — represents a separate track from the Section 122 expiration. Unlike the global surcharge, which exempted CUSMA-compliant goods, the new levies apply even to products qualifying under the trade pact. National Bank of Canada estimated the threatened duties would push Canada's average effective tariff rate from roughly 5% to about 7.5%, still below the 6.9% global average. Using May trade data as a benchmark, the bank found the actual duty rate paid on Canadian goods would rise from around 3% to just over 5%, as producers of heavily tariffed goods seek alternative markets.

Prime Minister Mark Carney said Tuesday that Canada will intensify trade talks with the U.S., though the White House has linked the tariffs to Canada's supply-managed dairy system and provincial bans on American liquor.

What Comes Next

The expiration of the Section 122 tariffs removes the administration's broadest trade authority, leaving a patchwork of country-specific and sectoral measures. The 12.5% tariff on South Korea under Section 301, the 50% levy on Canada under Section 338, and existing duties on steel and aluminum would remain in place. Greer faces the additional challenge of defending the administration's tariff policy before Congress, where lawmakers including Warren have pressed for reimbursement of the billions collected from American consumers under the now-invalidated Liberation Day framework.

The next flashpoint comes Friday, when the 10% global tariff officially lapses — and Greer's announcement will determine whether the administration has a replacement ready or enters a period of reduced tariff coverage for the first time since April 2025.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.