A shadow war in the Persian Gulf has broken into the open, revealing direct military clashes between Iran, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia that threaten to disrupt global energy flows.
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Gulf Shadow War Escalates After 4 Iranians Arrested in Kuwait
A shadow war in the Persian Gulf escalated sharply this week, after Kuwait announced the arrest of four alleged Iranian Revolutionary Guard members and reports surfaced of Saudi and Kuwaiti strikes on militias in Iraq. The revelations add a new, more direct dimension to a regional conflict that has roiled global energy markets.
“True peace cannot be built with a literature of humiliation, threats, and coercive score-settling,” Kazem Gharibabadi, an Iranian diplomat, said Tuesday on the social media platform X.
The disclosures add to tensions that have effectively paralyzed shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about 20 percent of the world’s oil, contributing to a global energy crisis. The United Nations Development Programme estimates the wider conflict “may cost economies in the region from 3.7 to 6.0 percent of their collective Gross Domestic Product (GDP).”
The public confirmation of direct state-on-state military action moves the regional conflict beyond proxy warfare, increasing the risk of a broader confrontation. This could force Gulf Cooperation Council states to divert trillions in planned global investments toward domestic defense and recovery, according to an analysis from Oilprice.com.
Kuwait and Iran Clash Over Island Infiltration
The diplomatic firestorm ignited Tuesday when Kuwait’s Interior Ministry accused Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of attempting to infiltrate Bubiyan Island on May 1. The island is the site of the Mubarak Al Kabeer Port, a major infrastructure project being built with Chinese investment.
According to Kuwait, four Iranian men were captured after a firefight with island garrisons that left one Kuwaiti soldier injured. The detainees—identified by Kuwaiti media as two naval officers, a naval captain, and an army second lieutenant—allegedly confessed to being on a hostile mission.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi countered on Wednesday, stating Kuwait had “illegally” attacked an Iranian vessel whose crew was on a routine patrol and had strayed into Kuwaiti waters due to a navigational system failure. Tehran demanded the immediate release of its four citizens. The Arab League issued a statement supporting Kuwait, calling the incident a “serious violation of international law.”
Saudi and Kuwaiti Strikes in Iraq Revealed
Adding to the tensions, media reports on Wednesday, citing Iraqi and Western officials, revealed that both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait had conducted military strikes against pro-Iranian militias in Iraq during the recent war.
Saudi warplanes reportedly hit bases near the Iraqi-Saudi border that had been used to launch drone and missile attacks against Gulf states. Separately, at least two volleys of rockets were reportedly fired from Kuwaiti territory into southern Iraq, destroying a communications and drone facility belonging to the Kataib Hezbollah militia and causing several fatalities.
These previously clandestine operations show a willingness by Gulf states to strike Iranian-backed groups directly, a significant escalation from past proxy conflicts. The strikes were prompted by persistent drone and rocket attacks from Iraq, including a storming of Kuwait’s consulate in Basra on April 7.
Israel Deepens UAE Defense Ties
The widening conflict has also accelerated a strategic realignment in the region. U.S. and Israeli officials confirmed for the first time that Israel has deployed its Iron Dome air-defense system to the United Arab Emirates.
The deployment, which helped the UAE intercept Iranian missiles during the conflict, was revealed by U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee. The news came as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office confirmed he made a secret visit to the UAE during the anti-Iran military operations to meet with President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Middle East 'Shadow War' Becomes Public: Iran Claims Kuwait 'Illegally' Attacked an Iranian Vessel and Detained Citizens, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia Reportedly Attacked Iraqi Militia Groups[2] Kuwait Accuses Iran of Trying to Infiltrate Its Territory[3] Gulf Countries Arrest Shiite ‘Traitors’ Amid War With Iran[4] Kuwait says Iran attacked an island where China is helping to build a port - The...[5] Iran War Threatens Gulf Investment Boom in Central Asia
