Iran denies next-week US talks as Strait traffic plunges 81%

Iran denied reports it would hold a new round of nuclear talks with the US next week, dashing the prospect of a diplomatic resolution after American airstrikes hit 90 targets across the Islamic Republic and Tehran retaliated against allied states.

"America still hasn't learned that bullying and breaking promises are no longer cost-free. Let me put it plainly: If you strike, you'll get hit," Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Iran's parliament speaker and a key negotiator in talks seeking a permanent end to the war, said in a post on X.

The denial of talks compounds the breakdown of the interim ceasefire, which President Donald Trump declared "over" this week after Iranian attacks on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway, which handled a fifth of the world's traded oil and natural gas before the war began in February, saw just 576 ship transits in June — an 81% decline from the more than 3,100 that passed in June 2025, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence data. Traffic had recovered somewhat from a low of 233 transits in May but remained far below pre-war levels.

The collapse of diplomatic momentum threatens to push crude prices higher as traders price in prolonged disruption to energy shipments through the strait, while gold and the dollar may draw safe-haven bids. Negotiations for a final deal, which were to begin after the funeral of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, now face an uncertain path as both sides trade fire.

The US Central Command said it struck 90 targets across Iran, including airport runways and missile launchers, in what it described as an effort to "further degrade" Iran's ability to threaten navigation in the strait. Iran's Health Ministry reported at least 14 people killed and 78 wounded over two days of American airstrikes, most of them members of the armed forces. Iranian state media also reported explosions near the Bushehr nuclear power plant complex, though Central Command did not list the facility among its targets.

The back-and-forth attacks mark the most serious breach of the ceasefire since it was reached in April. The last time the US and Iran exchanged direct strikes at this scale was in the opening days of the conflict on Feb. 28, when Khamenei was killed. That escalation sent Brent crude above $100 a barrel and pushed gold to record highs, illustrating the market stakes of the current standoff.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke by phone with his Saudi, Turkish and Omani counterparts and with Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, who has been one of the main mediators in the war. The outreach suggested efforts may be underway to contain the escalation, even as Trump renewed threats to hit Iran's civilian infrastructure and seize Kharg Island, through which some 90% of Iranian oil exports pass.

The Iranian denial came as Trump, speaking after a NATO summit in Turkey, posted videos of what he said were explosions in Iran and warned that further attacks on shipping would trigger an even stronger response. "If it happens again, it will get much worse," Trump wrote, renewing past threats to target Iran's civilian infrastructure, including electric and desalination plants.

The denial of talks next week, reported by Iranian media Fars News citing sources close to the negotiating team, contradicts an earlier Axios report that the US and Iran were considering Switzerland as a venue for a new round. The conflicting signals leave traders guessing whether the window for diplomacy has closed or remains ajar, with the Strait of Hormuz transit data serving as a real-time barometer of the conflict's economic toll.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.