Iran's Revolutionary Guards denied establishing a communication hotline with the US for the Strait of Hormuz, contradicting earlier claims by mediators and threatening the fragile ceasefire framework.
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Iran denies US Strait of Hormuz hotline, crude risk rises
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps denied setting up a communication hotline with the US for the Strait of Hormuz, calling the reports "completely fabricated" and undermining one of the few concrete outcomes from last week's ceasefire talks.
"The claim that a hotline has been established between Iran and the US regarding the Strait of Hormuz is completely fabricated," IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebbi said, according to state media.
The denial contradicts statements from Pakistani and Qatari mediators, who said June 22 that both sides had agreed to establish a line of communication "to avoid incidents and miscommunication with the aim of safe passage for commercial vessels." Iran's state-backed Press TV had reported the hotline's establishment as recently as June 20, a day after the IRGC struck the Singapore-flagged Ever Lovely with a drone in the strait. MarineTraffic data shows just two dozen commercial vessels transited the chokepoint over a 24-hour period, compared with about 110 before the war began in late February.
The Strait of Hormuz handles about 21% of global oil trade, and any uncertainty over safe passage directly feeds into crude prices. Brent crude traded near $72 a barrel after falling about 4% last week as fears eased following the Ever Lovely attack, but the hotline denial reintroduces geopolitical risk. Iran's deputy foreign minister Kareem Gharibabadi said Friday that safe passage "cannot be guaranteed" under the current ambiguous arrangements.
Conflicting Signals Undermine Ceasefire Framework
The hotline denial is the latest in a series of contradictory statements that have eroded confidence in the June 18 memorandum of understanding signed by President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Under Clause 5 of the agreement, Iran committed to making its best efforts to guarantee safe passage for commercial vessels through the strait, with consultations between Iran, Oman and other Gulf states on future administration of the waterway.
Yet within days of signing, the IRGC struck a commercial vessel attempting to use a southern route near Oman's coast — a corridor the US had encouraged ships to use as an alternative to Iran's designated northern passage. President Trump called the attack a "foolish violation" of the ceasefire. The Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the body set up by Iran to manage transit, warned that vessels using unauthorized routes would not receive safe passage guarantees or insurance coverage.
Iran has also introduced new 48-hour advance notice requirements for vessels seeking to transit the strait, adding another layer of friction to a waterway where shipping remains at about 20% of pre-war levels. About 115 vessels and 2,500 sailors have been evacuated from the Persian Gulf since June 16, according to the UN's International Maritime Organization, though that operation was paused after the Ever Lovely attack.
Oil Markets Face Renewed Uncertainty
The last time Iran directly challenged international shipping in the strait — during the tanker seizure campaign of 2019 — Brent crude spiked about 15% over six weeks before stabilizing as alternative supply routes emerged. The current situation carries greater risk because the war has already damaged critical energy infrastructure, including Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG hub, the world's largest such facility, which was struck by Iranian missiles in March.
For oil markets, the hotline denial means the mechanism designed to prevent military incidents at sea has no confirmed operational status. Without a verified communication channel, any vessel transiting the strait faces the risk of being targeted by Iranian forces if it deviates from Tehran's designated route. The US Treasury's 60-day waiver on Iranian oil sanctions, issued June 22 as part of the agreement, adds a further complication: Iran now has financial incentive to assert control over the waterway while sanctions are temporarily lifted.
The next round of US-Iran talks is expected to resume this week, with Pakistani mediators facilitating. Iran is also set to hold separate discussions with Persian Gulf states on regional security. Whether the hotline dispute is resolved in those sessions will determine if the fragile ceasefire can translate into a sustained reopening of the world's most important oil chokepoint.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Iran denies establishing communication hotline with US on the Strait of Hormuz issue[2] Live updates: Strait of Hormuz traffic steadily increasing but well below pre-war levels - CNN[3] U.S.-Iran Latest: Trump accuses Iran of "foolish violation" of ceasefire after ship struck in Strait of Hormuz[4] Trump accuses Iran of "foolish violation" after ship struck in Strait of Hormuz[5] Iran denies closing Strait of Hormuz again, says shipping 'operating normally'
