Iran, Oman pledge Strait of Hormuz safety as 40% traffic return seen

Iran and Oman pledged Strait of Hormuz safety as analysts see traffic reaching just 40% of prewar levels.

Iran and Oman reaffirmed commitments to freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, even as shipping analysts project traffic will reach just 40% of prewar levels within a month while unresolved security questions persist.

"The statements by the US and Iran are currently unclear and do not offer sufficient information regarding key aspects such as timings and safe routes," said Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at Bimco. "We advise shipowners to continue doing thorough risk assessments and appeal to all parties to put the safety of seafarers first."

About 600 ships remain trapped in the Persian Gulf, according to Bimco's chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen. Before the conflict began Feb. 28, roughly 100 vessels transited the strait daily, carrying about one-fifth of the world's oil. Trade data firm Kpler expects that number to reach about 40 ships per day in four weeks, held back by unresolved questions on mine clearance and Iranian control of passage. The group does not expect full normalization until well into 2027.

The framework agreement set to be signed June 19 between the US and Iran marks the start of a 60-day negotiating period, but Iran has signaled it may charge tolls after that window expires — a demand the Trump administration has rejected. US intelligence agencies have assessed that Iran can effectively shut down the strait at will from now on, a capability it proved during the conflict, according to three sources familiar with the findings.

Maritime security firm Vanguard Tech assessed the reopening would be managed rather than full, with mine clearance operations and normalization of traffic taking weeks rather than days. The International Transport Workers Federation said it does not expect an immediate return to normal, noting the backlog of stranded vessels and crew change needs mean a realistic return to normal shipping patterns is weeks, if not months, away.

Iran retains significant leverage even after signing the framework agreement. US intelligence assessments indicate the country still holds a substantial portion of its weapons stockpile, including missiles, drones and hundreds of small fast boats that continue to harass vessels. Iran has also been rebuilding its military industrial base faster than anticipated and has begun new drone production, CNN reported. Multiple sources said Iran has been plotting an economic "nuclear option" — getting Houthi forces in Yemen to close the Bab-el-Mandeb strait — if negotiations collapse.

"The next step is for shipowners to be reassured that transiting the Strait of Hormuz is not only permitted but also safe," Larsen said. "Ships trapped in the Persian Gulf will be interested in leaving as soon as it is safe to do so. This must be done in a coordinated manner due to the confined nature of the strait."

Charlie Brown, shipping advisor to United Against a Nuclear Iran, said markets may celebrate the pending reopening but shipowners will focus on whether waters are clear of threats and whether freedom of navigation has been restored. "Until those questions are answered, the crisis may be paused, but it is not over," he said.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.