A top Iranian official warned the possibility of a military attack is “not low” after at least 10 attacks by Iran since a ceasefire began, pushing the fragile truce to the brink of collapse.
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Iran Parliament Speaker Warns of Attack Risk as US Sinks 6 Boats
Tensions in the Middle East surged after Iran’s Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned his country has “not even started” in its standoff with the U.S. over the Strait of Hormuz, stating the possibility of a military attack is “not low.” The comments followed a sharp escalation in the waterway that saw U.S. forces sink six Iranian small boats and Iran launch missile and drone attacks against the United Arab Emirates and commercial shipping.
“We know full well that the continuation of the status quo is intolerable for America; whilst we have not even started yet,” Ghalibaf said in a social media post, adding that the “malign presence” of the U.S. and its allies had put shipping security at risk.
The escalation rattled global markets, sending the international benchmark Brent crude jumping $3.06 to $111.23 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.18 to $104.12. Futures for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively, as investors weighed the risk of a wider conflict erupting from the fragile, month-old ceasefire.
The clashes threaten to unravel a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire in place since early April, jeopardizing the flow of nearly one-fifth of the world's oil supply. While U.S. officials maintain the truce is holding, Iran’s recent actions, including attacks on a South Korean cargo ship and a UAE-owned tanker, suggest the region is sliding back toward open conflict.
'Project Freedom' Meets Iranian Resistance
The latest flare-up began after the U.S. launched “Project Freedom,” a military operation to guide commercial vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf through the Iranian-blockaded Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Central Command said two U.S.-flagged merchant ships, along with U.S. Navy destroyers, had successfully transited the strait.
Iran, which declared the strait closed to unapproved traffic, responded forcefully. According to U.S. military officials, Iranian forces launched a sustained barrage of small boats, missiles, and drones against the U.S. vessels. U.S. Central Command confirmed it destroyed six Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps boats during the confrontation. President Trump later put the number at seven. In separate attacks, the UAE reported that over a dozen missiles and multiple drones were fired at its territory, and an explosion was reported on a South Korean-flagged cargo vessel.
Ceasefire Under Strain
Despite the exchange of fire, U.S. officials asserted the ceasefire remains intact. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the U.S. is only acting defensively and that the effort to guide ships is “separate and distinct” from the earlier conflict. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine noted that Iran has attacked U.S. forces more than 10 times since the ceasefire began, but described the incidents as “low harassing fire” below the threshold of restarting major combat operations.
Tehran views the U.S. naval blockade of its ports and the new escort mission as a violation of the truce. President Trump, after declaring the U.S. would "blow Iran off the face of the Earth" if it targeted U.S. ships, announced a brief pause in Project Freedom to pursue a potential agreement with Tehran, though he insisted the blockade would remain.
Regional and Global Reactions
The violence drew widespread condemnation and calls for restraint. Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry expressed concern and called for de-escalation, while Egypt and the Gulf Cooperation Council condemned the “treacherous attacks” on the Emirati tanker.
The attacks have also pulled in other nations. After a South Korean cargo ship was damaged, President Trump urged Seoul to “come and join the mission,” prompting South Korea’s defense ministry to state it would “carefully review” its position. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron called for a “coordinated reopening” of the strait by both the U.S. and Iran, indicating France would not join the “unclear” U.S. military operation.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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