Iran Says US-Israel Stance Guarantees No Deal on April 11

Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad-Reza Aref declared that negotiations with a US representative focused on “America first” could yield a beneficial agreement for both nations and the world. However, he stated in a social media post, if the envoy represents an “Israel first” policy, no deal will be reached, potentially sending crude oil prices higher on fears of supply disruptions through the critical Strait of Hormuz, which handles over 20 percent of global oil consumption.

"If we negotiate with an 'America first' representative in Islamabad, it is likely to result in an agreement that benefits both parties and the world," Aref said. "However, if we are faced with an 'Israel first' representative, no agreement will be reached, and we will inevitably continue our self-defense more resolutely than ever, and the world will pay a greater price."

The explicit linkage of negotiation success to US policy on Israel injects fresh volatility into Middle East geopolitics. The statement triggered a risk-off sentiment in early market indications, with analysts watching for potential impacts on global equity markets and a flight to safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasury bonds. The warning comes after a period of heightened tensions, recalling the 2019 attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities that briefly sent oil prices soaring nearly 20 percent.

This hardline stance from Tehran complicates the diplomatic landscape ahead of any potential talks. For investors, it signals that geopolitical risk premium in crude oil is set to rise. The development suggests that any diplomatic misstep could lead to a direct confrontation, impacting global energy supply chains and pushing inflation higher at a time when central banks are struggling to maintain price stability. The market will now be watching for Washington's response to an ultimatum that ties US foreign policy directly to the price of oil.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.