Israel may sabotage Iran deal within 60 days, US intelligence warns

The US intelligence community has warned the Trump administration that Israel may attempt to disrupt or sabotage the emerging US-Iran nuclear agreement, according to the Washington Post.

The warning comes as the US and Iran prepare to sign a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday, kicking off a 60-day negotiation period to finalize a deal that would end the Feb. 28 war between the two nations. The intelligence assessment, which has not been publicly detailed, adds a volatile new variable to an already fragile diplomatic process.

"The intelligence community assesses with moderate confidence that Israeli actors, including but not limited to official government channels, may seek to derail the negotiations through covert action or public opposition," a US official familiar with the assessment told the Washington Post. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence.

The potential agreement faces criticism from both sides of the aisle in Washington. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a longtime Trump ally, told Politico he was "skeptical that Iran will ever go there" on ceasing enrichment, warning that if Iran retains any enrichment capability, the deal would be "the same as JCPOA." Vice President JD Vance on Monday pushed back against Israeli criticism, telling NBC News that nuclear inspectors will "absolutely" return to Iran, even though the deal text does not specify that.

The unresolved uranium question

The memorandum states only that Iran's stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium will be "adequately addressed" in final negotiations, leaving the fate of roughly half a ton of highly enriched material unresolved. By comparison, the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — which Trump abandoned during his first term and derided as "the worst agreement" — limited Iran to 300 kilograms of low-enriched uranium and gave the IAEA authority to conduct snap inspections.

The IAEA has warned member states that it can no longer verify the state or location of Iran's nuclear material since the US-Israeli bombing campaign in June 2025 destroyed monitoring equipment at sites in Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz. An internal IAEA report determined Iran is now more likely to covertly pursue nuclear weapons than before the war began, according to a report cited by HuffPost.

Market implications of a breakdown

Any disruption to the deal would have immediate consequences for global energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz handles about 21% of global oil trade, and Iran demonstrated during the conflict that it can effectively weaponize the chokepoint even with a degraded navy. The World Bank concluded the Iran war caused "the biggest supply shock in 50 years," leading to the worst global economic growth since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.

Brent crude prices could spike on supply disruption fears if the deal collapses, while gold would likely rise as a safe haven. The US dollar index may strengthen on risk-off positioning, and broader equity markets could face headwinds if the situation escalates into a renewed diplomatic crisis or military confrontation in the Middle East.

The last time a US-brokered Middle East deal faced active sabotage threats — during the 2015 JCPOA negotiations — the uncertainty pushed Brent crude volatility to multi-year highs and widened Israeli shekel CDS spreads by 40 basis points over a three-month period, according to data from the Bank of Israel.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.