John Paulson, who made billions shorting subprime mortgages, says gold's multi-year rally is only in its early stages.
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John Paulson says gold rally still early, touts NovaGold's 40 million oz
John Paulson, who made billions shorting subprime mortgages, says gold's multi-year rally is only in its early stages.
Gold traded near $4,121 an ounce as John Paulson said the metal's bull market remains in its early stages and recommended early-stage mining stocks.
"I do think we're in the beginnings or the early stages of a long-term bull market for gold," Paulson said on CNBC's "The Exchange" on July 22. "As people lose faith in paper currencies, gold as an alternative will continue to grow."
Paulson pivoted from mortgage shorts to gold in 2009, arguing that post-crisis stimulus would erode the dollar. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF has returned 339.66% since Jan. 2, 2009. Spot gold touched a record $5,600 an ounce in late January before pulling back to roughly $4,121. Central banks logged 41 tonnes of purchases during one of the metal's weaker months this year, while private-sector demand is rising, Paulson said.
Paulson singled out NovaGold Resources, pointing to its 40 million ounces of indicated and measured resources at the Donlin Gold project in Alaska against a post-deal market capitalization of $4.2 billion. The call carries the weight of one of Wall Street's most famous macro trades — and a freshly disclosed financial interest in the stock he is promoting.
NovaGold's 40 Million Ounce Bet
Paulson's firm agreed to sell its 40% stake in the Donlin project to NovaGold on the same day as his CNBC appearance. The deal, requiring shareholder, court, and regulatory approval, would give NovaGold 100% ownership and install Paulson as co-chairman. NovaGold already acquired Barrick Gold's 50% interest in Donlin in January for $1 billion, lifting its stake to 60%.
NovaGold shares closed at $6.21 on July 22, down 33.37% year to date. The development-stage company posted a net loss of $25.5 million in Q2 FY2026 and held roughly $370.2 million in cash. Its Donlin project features ore grades of 2.22 grams per tonne, more than double the global industry average.
Barrick Rides the Rally on the Other Side
Barrick Gold, which exited Donlin last year, posted $6 billion in Q2 revenue, up 64.5% year over year, on a realized gold price of $4,177 an ounce. It raised its quarterly dividend 40% to $0.17 a share, and its stock has gained 76.41% over the past year.
Not all gold bulls share Paulson's near-term conviction. JPMorgan recently cut its Q4 2026 gold price forecast after a volatile stretch, while maintaining a bullish long-term view.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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