Jordan denies US threat claim after detecting zero security risks

Jordan's government rejected a US Embassy warning of an "imminent security threat" that prompted the evacuation of Aqaba's airport and port, saying it detected zero threats in the preceding hours.

Jordan's government on Sunday denied a US Embassy warning of a "specific and credible security threat" that triggered the evacuation of Aqaba's international airport and port, saying it detected zero threats in the preceding hours.

"The US Embassy's claim is not true. Jordan did not detect any security threats in the past several hours," a Jordanian government spokesman told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The US Embassy in Amman had earlier issued an alert citing a "specific and credible security threat" and ordered the evacuation of King Hussein International Airport and the Aqaba port area, according to a statement reviewed by Reuters. The contradictory accounts create uncertainty about the security situation in southern Jordan, a key US ally that hosts roughly 3,000 American troops and borders Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Syria.

The dispute risks straining US-Jordan relations at a time when the kingdom serves as a critical transit hub for US military operations in the Middle East. Aqaba's port handles about 14 million tons of cargo annually and is a vital entry point for Iraqi imports, meaning any prolonged disruption could ripple through regional supply chains.

The conflicting narratives emerged as the broader region remains on edge after recent US strikes on Iran-linked targets. The last time a US diplomatic post issued a similar threat warning in the Middle East was in February 2023, when the US Embassy in Kyiv cited an "imminent" threat ahead of a Russian missile barrage — a warning that proved accurate and triggered widespread evacuations. That precedent may explain why the US Embassy acted preemptively, though Jordan's denial suggests a different calculus.

Jordan's denial carries particular weight given the kingdom's sophisticated security apparatus. The General Intelligence Directorate, one of the region's most capable intelligence services, has foiled multiple militant plots in recent years and maintains close coordination with US and Israeli counterparts. The agency's assessment that no threat existed suggests either a breakdown in intelligence-sharing between Washington and Amman or a divergence in threat assessment methodology.

For markets, the immediate risk centers on Aqaba's role as a Red Sea shipping node. The port sits roughly 40 miles from the Strait of Tiran, a chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aqaba. Any perceived threat to shipping in the area could push Brent crude higher, with the broader region's oil arteries already carrying an elevated risk premium after recent US military actions. Brent crude has traded in a range of $72 to $78 per barrel over the past month, and any disruption near Aqaba could push prices toward the upper end of that band. The last time a similar security alert disrupted Red Sea shipping was in December 2023, when Houthi attacks pushed Brent above $80 per barrel within two weeks.

Gold, which typically benefits from geopolitical uncertainty, may see modest safe-haven flows if the diplomatic rift widens. Spot gold has gained 12 percent this year, partly on elevated geopolitical risk premiums. The Jordanian dinar, pegged to the US dollar since 1995, faces limited direct pressure given the central bank's $18 billion in foreign reserves, though any sustained deterioration in US-Jordan ties could weigh on sovereign credit spreads. Jordan's dollar-denominated bonds have already widened 15 basis points this month amid broader regional tensions, according to data from Tradeweb.

The incident also raises questions about the reliability of US threat assessments in the region. If Jordan's denial is correct, it would mark a rare public disagreement between the two allies, which have maintained a strategic partnership since the 1994 peace treaty with Israel. The US has provided Jordan with roughly $1.5 billion in annual foreign aid, making the kingdom one of the largest recipients of American assistance per capita. Any erosion of trust could complicate future intelligence-sharing and military coordination at a time when the US relies on Jordanian airspace for operations across the region.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.