Kazakhstan targets 2.2M tons of crude via BTC pipeline in 2026

Kazakhstan plans to ship as much as 2.2 million tons of crude through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline in 2026, nearly doubling last year's volumes as the Central Asian producer pivots away from Russian-controlled export routes.

"Kazakhstan's diversification of export routes is a strategic priority to ensure stable access to global markets," Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said, outlining the target range of 1.5 million to 2.2 million tons.

The ramp-up is already underway. Kazakhstan shipped 471,000 tons through the BTC corridor between January and April, with monthly flows averaging 106,000 to 115,000 tons before April ticked up to 125,000 tons, according to shipping data. That compares with roughly 1.2 million tons for all of 2025. The state oil company KazMunayGas signed a five-year transit agreement with Azerbaijan's SOCAR, locking in a baseline of 1.5 million tons annually.

The shift matters because Kazakhstan has historically relied on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium route through Russia to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk for the bulk of its crude exports. Western sanctions on Russia, periodic CPC maintenance shutdowns, and broader instability in the Black Sea region have made that dependence a liability. The BTC pipeline — running 1,099 miles from Azerbaijan through Georgia to Turkey's Mediterranean coast — offers a route that bypasses Russian territory entirely.

The physical mechanics work like this: Kazakh crude moves by tanker from the port of Aktau on the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, where it feeds into the BTC pipeline for onward transport to Ceyhan, Turkey. From there, it enters the global market. The route has been operational since 2006 and was originally built primarily for Azerbaijani crude.

The diversification push comes at a moment of severe disruption in global oil transit. The Iran conflict and near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February have slashed daily vessel crossings by 88%, according to LSEG data. Middle East crude exports have fallen from an average of about 75 million tons per month before the crisis to roughly 36 million tons since March, data from Kpler shows. Global crude loadings during January through May slipped about 8% year over year to around 800 million tons.

Caspian Routes Gain Strategic Value

As Middle East supply tightens, every non-Russian transit corridor becomes more valuable. The United States has boosted crude exports by 16% year over year to about 86 million tons in the first five months of 2026, and the Americas region added roughly 28 million tons of shipments, but that has only partially offset the roughly 100-million-ton shortfall from the Middle East, per Kpler data.

For Kazakhstan, the BTC pipeline offers more than just diversification — it provides pricing leverage. The country's crude has historically traded at a discount to Brent because of its dependence on Russian transit infrastructure. A functioning alternative route could narrow that spread over time, particularly if volumes scale toward the upper end of the target range.

Execution Risks Remain

Scaling from 1.2 million tons to as much as 2.2 million tons in a single year requires coordination across three countries, adequate tanker capacity on the Caspian Sea, and sufficient spare capacity in the BTC pipeline itself, which also carries Azerbaijani crude. If tanker bottlenecks emerge, 2026 volumes could land closer to 1.5 million tons than 2.2 million, a meaningful difference in revenue terms for a country where hydrocarbon exports account for the majority of state revenue.

The KazMunayGas-SOCAR five-year agreement signals a longer-term structural commitment rather than a tactical response to the Hormuz crisis. But the near-term ceiling will be determined by logistics, not ambition.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.